MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Canada Federal Election Preview

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Canada holds elections to its 45th Parliament on Monday, 28 April, amid a political landscape that has changed beyond all recognition since the start of the year. 

• In January, then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was dealing with record or near-record low personal approval ratings and opinion polling support for his centre-left Liberal party, an increasingly agitated parliamentary caucus concerned about the prospect of an electoral wipeout, and the looming threat of a vote of no confidence in his minority administration that could lead to a snap election.
• In contrast, the main opposition centre-right Conservative party was 20%-25% ahead in the polls, riding a wave of public discontent with rising cost of living pressures, unaffordable housing, and a Trudeau government that had been in office for nine years and appeared out of new ideas. Its leader, Pierre Poilievre, was seen as essentially the prime minister-in-waiting. 

However, two political events have changed the narrative: the resignation of Trudeau as leader of the Liberal party and prime minister after nine years in office, and the historic deterioration in relations between Canada and the United States. Trudeau’s resignation and replacement as prime minister by Mark Carney, and the aggressive tariff actions and rhetoric directed towards Canada by US President Donald Trump. The former has allowed the Liberal party to put itself forward as a ‘new’ offering, despite having held 24 Sussex Drive since 2015. The latter has seen a sentiment shift among large portions of the Canadian electorate against the US and towards vehement backing of anything domestic, whether this be industry, sports teams, or indeed the incumbent government. 

This shift has seen the Liberals surge into the lead in opinion polling, with the election now viewed as Prime Minister Carney’s to lose. In this Election Preview, we outline how the Canadian electoral system works and how election night will proceed, run through the main political parties contesting the election, provide a chartpack of the latest polls and betting markets, assign probabilities to various election scenarios, and key views from sell-side analysts. MNIPOLITICALRISK-CanadaElectionPreview.pdfMNIPOLITICALRISK-CanadaElectionPreview.pdfMNIPOLITICALRISK-CanadaElectionPreview.pdf