US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Market Braces For Trump's WEF Address

Jan-23 13:26
  • 11:00 ET 16:00: President Donald Trump will address the World Economic Forum in Davos. Having already driven much of the Davos conversation with his executive orders and tariff remarks, markets will be watching closely for concrete statements on his trade agenda.
  • Republican leaders are searching for offsets to fund an expensive reconciliation agenda. A House Ways and Means budget document estimates that a 10 percent across-the-board tariff could raise USD$1.9 trillion over a decade.
  • JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said the national security benefits of Trump tariffs could outweigh downsides for inflation.
  • Republicans are considering a bipartisan package to cover government funding, a debt limit hike, California wildfire aid, and border security funds.
  • The Senate is expected to confirm John Ratcliffe as Trump's CIA Director today. Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent appears on track for a full confirmation vote on Sunday or Monday.
  • The Pentagon is deploying around 1,500 troops to the southern border.
  • Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with Middle Eastern leaders, continuing his busy first week in office.
  • Trump's designation of Mexican cartels as foreign terrorist organisations could force American companies out of Mexico.
  • Trump delivered his first post-inaugural threat to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
  • Trump re-designated the Houthi rebels in Yemen as a terrorist organisation.
  • Saudi Arabia is open to increasing investment and trade with the US.
  • Poll of the Day: Americans believe Trump tariffs will raise the price of consumer goods.

Full article: US DAILY BRIEF

Historical bullets

CROSS ASSET: US 10yr Yield targets the next resistance

Dec-24 13:18
  • With Tnotes testing another session low, focus turns to the 4.6357% level in Yield, this is around 108.09 vs 108.10 earlier.
  • Much Further out would see 4.7351%, the 2024 high, and highest level since November 2023.
  • This level would equate to ~107.19 Today.
  • There's no Impact in the Yen as of Yet.

(Chart source: MNI/Bloomberg):

USGG10YR Index (US Generic Govt  2024-12-24 13-14-21

 

STIR: Repo Reference Rates

Dec-24 13:03
  • Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.31% (+0.01), volume: $2.337T
  • Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.29% (+0.01), volume: $846B
  • Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 4.29% (+0.01), volume: $815B
  • (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)

US TSYS: Early SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup

Dec-24 12:56

Option desks report modest SOFR & Treasury option volume overnight, better 10Y put interest followed by Jan 10Y call condors more recently. Underlying futures continue to extend lows, 10Y yield revisiting late May levels at 4.6068% this morning. Curves mildly steeper with short end rates outperforming (2s10s now at 25.174 vs. 23.991 low), while projected rate cuts into early 2025 look steady to slightly lower vs. late Monday (*) as follows: Jan'25 steady at -2.1bp, Mar'25 steady at -11.7bp, May'25 -16.7bp (-16.0bp), Jun'25 -23.1bp (-23.4bp).

  • SOFR Options:
    • 3,100 SFRF5 95.56/95.62/95.68 put flys
  • Treasury Options:
    • 6,000 TYF5 108.5/108.75/109/109.25 call condors
    • Block, 6,000 TYF5 108.5 puts, 13 ref 108-15, 8,200 total, 11 last
    • 26,000 TYG5 107.5/108.5 put spds, 24 ref 108-16.5
    • 1,700 USF5 112 puts, 2 ref 113-18

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