MNI POLITICAL RISK - Trump Notches Up Another Win In Congress

Download Full Report Here

Executive summary:

• President Donald Trump has no official engagements or notable meetings on his public schedule today. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt will brief reporters at 13:00 ET 18:00 BST.
• Despite a brief reprieve on Wednesday, markets returned to pessimism after digesting Trump’s spiralling trade war with China. Beijing hiked its tariff rate on US imports to 125%, effectively severing bilateral trade relations between the world’s two biggest economies.
• The implied probability of a US recession in 2025 spiked to 65%, roughly where it was before Wednesday’s rally.
• Trump reiterated at a Cabinet meeting that he believes his punitive measures will bring China to the negotiating table.
• NEC Director Kevin Hassett indicated that the 10% universal baseline tariff is likely to be permanent.
• Services are likely to be drawn into the trade war, despite being left out of Trump’s tariff maths.
• Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and Trump stared down another rebellion from conservative Republicans, passing a budget resolution to underpin the largest fiscal bill in US history.
• Middle East envoy Steven Witkoff is expected to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin today. 
• US and Iranian delegations will meet in Oman on Saturday for talks aimed at renegotiating the nuclear accord that Trump terminated during his first term.
• Poll of the Day: 57 percent of manufacturing workers believe tariffs would hurt rather than help their job and career.

Please find the full article attached below: US DAILY BRIEF