US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Trump Outlines Plan For Reciprocal Tariffs
Feb-14 13:18
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- US President Donald Trump unveiled plans for a ‘reciprocal’ tariff regime aimed at redressing imbalances in US trade relationships. Trump directed the departments of Commerce, Treasury, and Homeland Security - along with the USTR and White House aides - to undertake a review to ensure "fairness and balance" across the international trading system. Commerce Secretary-designate, Howard Lutnick, told reporters Trump could act immediately when studies are completed by April 1.
- French President Emmanuel Macron said Trump’s return to the White House should compel the EU to devise a new approach to defence and the economy.
- The European Commission said the EU will react "firmly and immediately against unjustified barriers to free and fair trade..."
- A senior lawmaker from Germany's CDU said Europe could "go to zero" tariffs on all US goods.
- India agreed to boost oil and gas imports from the US in a bid to soften tariffs.
- The House Budget Committee cleared the first procedural hurdle towards legislating Trump’s agenda.
- Senior Republican senators will only support a reconciliation package that includes a permanent extension of 2017 tax cuts.
- Vice President JD Vance will deliver a key speech at the Munich Security Conference, ahead of a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signalled more measures against Iranian oil exports.
- Chart of the Day: US allies are in the crosshairs of Trump's tariff plans.
Full article: US Daily Brief
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SECURITY: Hamas Gives 'Green Light' To Gaza Creasefire Deal, Jerusalem Post
Jan-15 13:18
Reuters, Kan, Axios, and the Jerusalem Post reporting that Hamas has "given a green light" to a hostage-for-ceasefire deal in Gaza, according to Israeli officials, with a final deal expected by Wednesday night or Thursday.
- Barack Ravid at Axios notes on X: "A third Israeli official tells me: "There is a breakthrough in the hostage deal negotiations in Doha. Hamas military leader in Gaza Mohammed Sinwar gave his Ok""
- Ravid noted, prior to the above comme: "[An] Israeli official tells me: We are optimistic there is going to be a hostage and ceasefire deal by tomorrow at the latest"
- Amichai Stein at Kan reports: "Israeli officials tell [Jerusalem Post]: Hamas gave a green light to go ahead with the deal - "significant progess" and an attempt to reach a final deal by tonight or tomorrow"
- As noted in previous bullet, the risk of ultranationalist hardliners in the Israeli gov't scuppering a deal is believed to have reduced significantly, de-risking one of the primary threats to the durability of a deal. See: ISRAEL: Efforts To Reach Gaza Deal Resume, Risk From Israeli Hardliners Shrinks
Figure 1: Key Terms of Hostage-for-Ceasefire Deal (Jerusalem Post)
CROSS ASSET: Looking at the US 10yr Yield ahead of the CPI
Jan-15 13:16
Just in case, looking at the 10yr Yield, 5% is at 106.00 today.
Posted these Yesterday, and given where Yield terms are Today, these should still be near enough in futures term:
- 4.8500% = 106.30.
- 4.9000% = 106.20.
- 4.9500% = 106.10.
- 5.0000% = 106.00+.
- 5.0187% = 105.28+ (2023 high and highest since July 07).
Resistance in TYH5 is at 107.18+, followed by 107.28+, and a push to 108.03+ (not a tech Level), would represent a full reversal of Friday's NFP sell off.
STIR: Repo Reference Rates
Jan-15 13:13
- Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.28% (-0.01), volume: $2.179T
- Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.27% (-0.01), volume: $840B
- Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 4.27% (-0.01), volume: $825B
- (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)
