MNI POLITICAL RISK - Trump's Trade War Spirals

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Executive summary:

• The latest tranche of President Donald Trump's tariffs went into effect today, including a punitive tariff hiking duties on Chinese imports to at least 104%. In response, China announced it will raise its tariff on US imports from 34% to 84%, with the measure set to take effect within hours. There is more to come, with Trump promising yesterday a “major” tariff on pharmaceuticals would be announced “very shortly.”
• The prevailing view amongst analysts is that the Trump administration is signalling a willingness to negotiate deals but it is unclear how quickly talks can proceed or what kind of deals could be on the table.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox Business this morning that a Vietnamese delegation is in Washington today for tariff talks. Polymarket views Japan as the most likely country to see a tariff deal.
• White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed that Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will become the first European leader to meet face-to-face with Trump since the imposition of tariffs.
• The EU is working on retaliatory measures that will target Republican states.
• USTR Jamieson Greer will testify again on the Trump administration’s trade policy.
• Trump ratcheted-up pressure on rebellious House Republicans to back a Senate-approved budget blueprint. Speaker Johnson has teed up a Rules hearing today towards bringing the budget to the floor.
• Poll of the Day: Roughly 50% of Americans say short-term economic pain is worth it.

Please find the full article attached below: US DAILY BRIEF