MNI: UK JUN CLAIMANT CHG +32300

• RES 4: 5127.70 1.382 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 5110.00 High May 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 5046.00/5088.00 High Jun 12 / 6
• RES 1: 4969.60 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 4905.00 @ 06:41 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: 4818.00 Low Jun 14
• SUP 2: 4762.00 Low Apr 19 and a key support
• SUP 3: 4711.00 Low Feb 19
• SUP 4: 4626.00 Low Feb 13

The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish, however, a corrective cycle has resulted in a pullback from the May high, and this bear remains in play for now. Last week’s move lower resulted in a break of 4943.00, the Jun 11 low, highlighting potential for a deeper retracement. Scope is seen for a move towards 4762.00, the Apr 19 low and a key support. Firm resistance is at 5046.00, Jun 12 high.

• RES 4: 100.00 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 99.62 1.382 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 2: 99.25 1.236 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 1: 98.89/99.05 High May 16 a key resistance / High Jun 14
• PRICE: 98.33 @ Close Jun 17
• SUP 1: 97.86 High Jun 4 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 97.45/96.84 20-day EMA / Low Jun 12
• SUP 3: 96.12 Low Jun 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: 95.58 Low May 31

Last week’s rally in Gilt futures, resulted in a break of resistance at 97.86, the Jun 4 high and 98.05, 76.4% of the May 16 - 29 bear cycle. This cancels a recent bearish threat and instead highlights a resumption of the bull cycle that started May 29. Friday’s gains reinforced the bull theme, resulting in a print above 98.89, the May 16 high. A clear break of this hurdle would reinforce bullish conditions. Initial firm support is 97.45, 20-day EMA.

Germany, Greece, Spain, and France all still look to hold auctions this week while Slovakia and Belgium came to the market yesterday. We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E27.5bln, up from E24.7bln last week.

• Germany, this morning, will look to sell E4bln of the 2.10% Apr-29 Bobl (ISIN: DE000BU25026).
• Greece, tomorrow will look to hold a GGB auction. Details will be announced today.
• Germany will return to the market tomorrow to hold a 30-year Bund auction. On offer will be E2bln of the 2.50% Aug-54 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2D004), up from a previously announced E1bln. This increased size is instead of opening another 30-year Bund alongside the 2.50% Aug-54 Bund.

EZ240618.pdf