AMERICAS OIL: MNI: UNIV OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT FINAL MAR INDEX 57.0

ERM5 97.875/98.00/98.0625/98.1875 call condor 4K given at 4.

• +2,000 WNH5 123-27, post time offer at 0847:28ET, DV01 $391,000. The 30Y ultra contract trades 123-25 last

Building permits were revised slightly lower in January’s final reading, to 1,473k - representing a 0.6% decline rather than the initially reported 0.1% rise (to 1,483k, all figures on a seasonally-adjusted annualized basis).

• The lower revision came on the back of multi-unit permits showing a 7k decline to 479k (originally reported as a 1k rise to 487k), while single-family permits fell 2k to 994k, vs the unchanged 996k as originally reported.
• This cast a more negative light on residential construction conditions at the start of the year, which MNI described as “mixed” on the prelim data which showed housing starts fall 9.8% to 1,366k. The SA annualized levels of both permits and starts remained below year-prior levels.
• Sequentially though, residential construction is likely to contribute to GDP growth in Q1 albeit at a slower rate vs Q4, and economists' consensus is for permits and starts to edge higher through mid-2026 with mid-2024 having represented the trough.

• On a minor note, this report incorporates a new methodology used by the Census Bureau which takes into account permit data from Florida, Texas, and California to help impute regional permit factors - this results in a higher number of aggregated levels for permits (24 for single unit vs 8 prior; 36 for multi-unit vs 12 prior). More detail here.