MACRO OUTLOOK: MNI US Macro Weekly: Here Comes The Hard Part
We've just released our weekly US Macro publication - click here for PDF: https://media.marketnews.c...
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ASIA: Coming Up In Asia Pac Markets On Thusday
| 2145GMT | 0545HKT | 0845AEDT | New Zealand Jan Net Migration |
| 2350GMT | 0750HKT | 1050AEDT | Japan Offshore Weekly Inv Flows |
| 0000GMT | 0800HKT | 1100AEDT | Australia March Inflation Expectations |
| 0001GMT | 0801HKT | 1101AEDT | UK Feb RICS House Pirce Balance |
| 0135GMT | 0935HKT | 1235AEDT | New Zealand Bond Sale |
| 0230GMT | 1030HKT | 1330AEDT | Australia RBA Jones On A Panel |
USDCAD TECHS: Remains Above Last Week’s Low
- RES 4: 1.4793 High Feb 3 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.4700 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.4473/4543 High Mar 10 / 4 and a bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.4406 @ 14:59 GMT Mar 12
- SUP 1: 1.4242 Low Mar 6
- SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
The bull cycle in USDCAD that started Feb 14 remains in play for now, and recent weakness appears corrective. The pair has recovered from its Mar 6 low and a continuation higher would signal scope for a test of the short-term bull trigger at 1.4543, the Mar 4 high. On the downside, support to watch lies at 1.4242, the Mar 6 low. A break of this level would instead expose key short-term support at 1.4151, the Feb 14 low.
BOC: MNI BoC Review-March 2025: Trade War Tradeoffs
We've just published our review of March's Bank of Canada meeting - Download Full Report Here, including a summary of sell-side analysts' reviews of the decision and press conference.
- The Bank of Canada (BoC) cut at the seventh consecutive meeting in March, by 25bp to an overnight rate target of 2.75%, in line with analyst consensus and market pricing.
- The 225bp of easing since June brings rates to what Governor Macklem characterized as the middle of the “neutral” range, putting policy in a finely poised position with the escalating trade war between Canada and the U.S. looming large over the economic outlook.
- Overall the press conference leaned marginally hawkish, as Macklem was if anything more emphatic on the need to keep inflation / inflation expectations under control.
- There was no post-meeting change in analyst expectations for the rate path ahead, with overwhelming consensus for a terminal rate of 2.25% (two more 25bp cuts), in line with market pricing. But those views are very much contingent on trade developments – and much could change between now and the Apr 16 decision.
