MACRO ANALYSIS: MNI US Macro Weekly: Liberation Brings Liquidation, No Fed Put

• RES 4: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance     
• RES 3: 0.8385 76.4% retracement of the Jan 20 - Mar 3 bear leg 
• RES 2: 0.8385 61.8% retracement of the Jan 20 - Mar 3 bear leg 
• RES 1: 0.8375 Intraday hugh     
• PRICE: 0.8372 @ 16:09 GMT Mar 5 
• SUP 1: 0.8322 50-day EMA    
• SUP 2: 0.8241 Low Mar 3 and a near-term bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range

A strong reversal in EURGBP from its recent lows highlights a short-term reversal. The cross has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The impulsive rally over the past 2 trading sessions signals scope for an extension towards 0.8385 and 0.8419, Fibonacci retracement points. On the downside, initial support is seen at 0.8322, the 50-day EMA. Key short-term support has been defined at 0.8241, the Mar 3 low.

Little to no reaction to latest Trump headlines - or already discounted after earlier reports. Tsys hugging session lows, stocks near top end of session range, US$ index lower.

• "WHITE HOUSE: RECONSIDERING FUNDING FOR UKRAINE", Bbg
• “WHITE HOUSE: TRUMP IS OPEN TO HEARING ABOUT ADDITIONAL TARIFF EXEMPTIONS”, Rtrs 
• "WHITE HOUSE: WILL GIVE ONE MONTH EXEMPTION ON ANY AUTOS COMING THROUGH USMCA", Rtrs

• US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
• 6-Mar 0730 Challenger Job Cuts YoY (-39.5%, --)
• 6-Mar 0830 Initial Jobless Claims (242k, 233k)
• 6-Mar 0830 Continuing Claims (1.862M, 1.877M)
• 6-Mar 0830 Trade Balance (-$98.4B, -$128.8B)
• 6-Mar 0830 Nonfarm Productivity (1.2%, 1.2%)
• 6-Mar 0830 Unit Labor Costs (3.0%, 3.0%)
• 6-Mar 0845 Philly Fed Harker on economic education
• 6-Mar 1000 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM (1.0%, 0.6%)
• 6-Mar 1000 Wholesale Inventories MoM (0.7%, 0.7%)
• 6-Mar 1530 Fed Gov Waller economic outlook (no text, Q&A)
• 6-Mar 1900 Atl Fed Bostic economic outlook, Birmingham (no text, Q&A)