Figure 1: German employment continues stabilisation but unemployment ticks up considerably

RBNZ (MNI): RBNZ Cuts OCR 25bp to 3.25%
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Monetary Policy Committee cut the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 3.25% on Wednesday, citing significant spare capacity in the economy. While a rate hold was considered, the quarter-point reduction was backed by a 5-1 majority on the committee. The move was largely anticipated. “The case for lowering the OCR to 3.25% highlighted that CPI inflation is in the target range and there is significant spare capacity in the economy," the MPC's statement noted.
RBNZ (MNI): 3.25% OCR Is in the “Neutral Zone”
Governor Hawkesby held his first press conference and noted that the vote on the direction of rates was the first in two years and usually occurs at inflexion points and also reflects the high degree of uncertainty at the moment. With rates now in the “neutral zone” the MPC “can now respond to developments as they occur”, thus further easing isn’t a given and future decisions will remain data and outlook dependent. There was a consensus around the updated projections but not whether there needed to be a rate cut in May.
FED (BBG): Fed’s Williams Says Pandemic Changed Inflation Perceptions
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said pandemic-era price shocks changed American consumers’ inflation perceptions, and policymakers can’t take for granted that people’s estimates of future price increases will remain anchored. “The past five years have, I think, changed people’s perceptions of inflation,” Williams said Wednesday in Tokyo during a conference at the Bank of Japan. Policymakers should aim to anchor not only longer-term estimates of future consumer price increases, but “the whole curve,” he added. “The thing you want to avoid is allowing inflation to become highly persistent, because highly persistent can kind of become permanent,” he said.
US (BBG): Trump Says Fannie Mae to Keep US Guarantee as Public Firm
President Donald Trump said that the US government would retain guarantees and an oversight role over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac even as he pursues a public offering for the mortgage giants. “I am working on TAKING THESE AMAZING COMPANIES PUBLIC, but I want to be clear, the US Government will keep its implicit GUARANTEES, and I will stay strong in my position on overseeing them as President,” Trump wrote Tuesday night in a post on his Truth Social platform.
US (BBG): Musk Says He’s ‘Disappointed’ That Trump Tax Bill Raises Deficit
Elon Musk expressed dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump’s giant tax bill, saying it undercut his efforts to slash government spending. Musk, who has announced he’s stepping back from his Department of Government Efficiency — a body that quickly became an exponent of the second Trump administration’s vision — told CBS News in an interview that he was “disappointed to see the massive spending bill, frankly, which increases the budget deficit, not just decreases it, and undermines the work that the DOGE team is doing.”
US/IRAN (MNI): Nuclear Chief Raises Prospect of US Inspectors at Iranian Facilities
Reuters reporting comments from the Head of the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran, Mohammad Eslami, saying that if a nuclear deal is reached with the US, Tehran may permit US inspectors as part of International Atomic Energy Agency monitoring teams visiting Iranian nuclear sites. Eslami's comments come after Iran-based Amwaj Media reported that, after the fifth round of Iran-US talks at the weekend, Oman's proposals are being closely considered. According to Amwaj's Iranian sources, "US negotiators seemed to acknowledge that "zero enrichment" was a nonstarter for Tehran." One supposed proposal is a regional enrichment consortium, which would draw countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE into jointly overseeing Iranian enrichment facilities.
US/MIDEAST (NYT): As Trump Seeks Iran Deal, Israel Again Raises Possible Strikes on Nuclear Sites
As the Trump administration tries to negotiate a nuclear deal with Iran, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel has been threatening to upend the talks by striking Iran’s main nuclear enrichment facilities, according to officials briefed on the situation. The clash over how best to ensure that Iran cannot produce a nuclear weapon has led to at least one tense phone call between President Trump and Mr. Netanyahu and a flurry of meetings in recent days between top administration officials and senior Israeli officials.
RUSSIA/UKRAINE (MNI): New Round of Ukraine Talks to Be Announced “In Very Near Future” - Lavrov
State-run Tass reports Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov saying that Russia will confirm the dates of the next round of direct talks with Ukraine on reaching a ceasefire "in the very near future," Speaking in Moscow, Lavrov says "At these negotiations on May 16 in Istanbul, when they resumed, we insisted on the abolition of all these discriminatory laws and will continue to do so in the next round of direct negotiations," Lavrov also confirmed that "A neutral and nuclear-free status for Ukraine is one of Russia's key demands."
OIL (BBG): OPEC+ Gathers for Quota Review Before Decision on July Output
OPEC+ will gather online on Wednesday to review production quotas for this year and next, before eight key members decide at the weekend whether to bolster output again in July. Several delegates said they expect the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners to leave their longer-term targets for 2025 and 2026 — which underpin its current supply restraints — unchanged. The more market-sensitive discussion on whether to continue their 411,000 barrel-a-day hikes, which have sent prices crashing over the past two months, will be finalized in a video conference on Saturday, delegates said, asking not to be identified as the talks are private.
ECB (FT): Christine Lagarde Discussed Leaving ECB Early to Head WEF, Klaus Schwab Says
Christine Lagarde has discussed cutting short her term as European Central Bank president to become chair of the World Economic Forum, according to WEF founder Klaus Schwab. Schwab, who left the WEF last month in the wake of misconduct allegations he denies, said that practical arrangements — such as an apartment in Switzerland — had been made for Lagarde to take over the organisation before her tenure at the ECB ends in 2027. Any move by Lagarde to accelerate her departure from the ECB could trigger a succession race for the EU’s top monetary authority.
EUROPE (NYT): Zelensky Heads to Berlin in Latest Sign of a Warming Relationship
Three weeks after Chancellor Friedrich Merz took over as the leader of Germany, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine will visit him in Berlin on Wednesday. The Ukrainian leader’s visit will be his third meeting with Mr. Merz in as many weeks and underscores Mr. Merz’s focus on the war in Ukraine, as he seeks to reestablish German leadership among European allies in the face of weakening U.S. commitments to NATO. Mr. Zelensky will meet with Mr. Merz in the Chancellery, Germany’s executive office, and the two men will hold a joint news conference in the afternoon.
CZECHIA/CHINA (BBG): Czechs Blame China for Cyber Attack Against Foreign Ministry
Chinese hackers were behind an attack against the Czech Republic’s foreign ministry, according to the ministry’s head Jan Lipavsky. “China is interfering in our society - through manipulation, propaganda and cyberattacks,” he said on X on Wednesday. Czech security organs responded and are investigating the activity that lasted from 2022 and was carried out by the “cyberespionage actor APT31 that is publicly associated with the Ministry of State Security” in China, the Czech ministry said in a separate statement.
BOJ (MNI): BOJ to Watch JGB Short-End Impacts - Ueda
The Bank of Japan must remain attentive to the risk that rising yields on super-long Japanese government bonds (JGBs) could spill over to medium- and short-term yields, which more directly influence the economy, Governor Kazuo Ueda told lawmakers Wednesday. BOJ analysis shows medium- and short-term interest rates have a greater economic impact than long-term ones, he said, noting that the Bank is closely monitoring market developments and their implications for the economy. Super-long JGB yields have climbed recently, driven by concerns over worsening fiscal conditions and supply-demand imbalances in the bond market.
CHINA (MNI EXCLUSIVE): Panda Market Growth Seen Luring Brazil, Other EM Issuers
MNI discusses China's growing panda bond market. On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
CHINA (MNI): China’s European Firms Facing Record Difficulties
MNI (Beijing) European firms operating in China are facing record levels of difficulty doing business in the country, said Jens Eskelund, president at the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China on Wednesday, citing increasing economic, regulatory and political concerns among members. Introducing the chamber's latest sentiment survey, Eskelund said an economic slowdown compounded by overcapacity had made it difficult to operate. Concerns over China’s economic slowdown topped the list for 71% of respondents, up one percentage point from February, followed by U.S.-China tensions at 47%.
HONG KONG (MNI): Shein IPO Venue Switch Could Have Broader Implications
Chinese eCommerce firm Shein is said to be switching focus for their IPO listing from London and to Hong Kong after the company failed to gain the approval of Chinese regulators, and in particular the CSRC, according to Reuters sources. A Shein IPO in London would have been the largest since Glencore in 2011 and the most significant listing since Deliveroo's volatile IPO in 2021 (who are now destined to leave the market this year after DoorDash announced their plans to buy the company). As such, Shein's switch in focus is detrimental to London's standing as a global financial hub and means the city misses out on another sizeable float.
MNI SARB PREVIEW - MAY 2025: Will SARB Resume Cuts?
Consensus is leaning towards a 25bp cut at South African Reserve Bank’s monetary policy meeting this week, as recent price dynamics have proven relatively benign, with headline inflation tracking below the +3.0-6.0% Y/Y target range. However, the wider perception is that it is a close call, with upside inflation risks further ahead and broader uncertainty around the outlook encouraging the MPC to remain cautious. In the meantime, SARB watchers will be on the lookout for any announcements surrounding ongoing talks with the National Treasury on the inflation target revision.
MNI BOK PREVIEW - MAY 2025: BOK to Cut
The BOK to cut rates by 25bps this week whilst tempering expectations for further cuts given: contraction in Q1 GDP; CPI manageable and in line with target with expectations it could moderate further; whilst exports have rebounded, ongoing tariff concerns cloud the outlook; currency and equity markets have rebounded strongly providing good back drop for rates move.
ECB DATA (MNI): 1-Year Ahead Inflation Expectations Above Consensus, but Won’t Concern ECB
ECB 1-year ahead consumer inflation expectations surprisingly rose two tenths to 3.1% in April, going against the median analyst forecast of a softening to 2.8%. However, both 3- and 5-year expectations were steady at 2.5% and 2.1% respectively, so the data shouldn't be of much concern to the ECB. Nominal spending growth expectations over the next 12 months increased to 3.7% from 3.4% in March, a finding that was observed across all income groups. However, 1-year ahead economic growth expectations became more negative at -1.9% from -1.2% prior. On the labour market, consumers expect the future unemployment rate at 10.5%
(vs 10.4% in March), still above the perceived current unemployment rate of 9.8%. A reminder that the actual Eurozone unemployment rate is currently 6.2%.
GERMANY DATA (MNI): Mixed Signals in Latest Labour Market Data
Latest German labour market data was mixed - employment continues its stabilization but unemployment ticked up considerably, with the employment agency looking for further layoffs. The IFO employment barometer remains contractionary but is on 10-month highs. Unemployment rose noticeably more than expected, by the quickest pace since July 2022 (34k vs 12k cons, 6k Apr) on a seasonally-adjusted basis. The unemployment rate meanwhile remained at 6.3% for the third consecutive month, as expected. The expected number of employees impacted by 'Kurzarbeit' (which has to be reported in advance by companies and can be interpreted as an early indicator for future use of state benefits) was little changed in May at around 46k.
GERMANY DATA (MNI): Labour Market Deterioration Tapers in Q1
The deterioration of the German labour market slowed in Q1 according to detailed quarterly data released by Destatis. Employment declined for a third consecutive quarter in Q1 but less materially than before, at -0.02% Q/Q vs -0.03% in Q4 (and a Q3 which was the second-worst quarter since the global financial crisis). Sentiment also improved recently with the IFO employment barometer at 10-month highs; in April, German employment was unchanged (Destatis data from this morning).
FRANCE DATA (MNI): Sharp Downward Revision to Q1 Export Growth
French Q1 GDP confirmed flash estimates at 0.1% Q/Q, but this masked substantial revisions in the net trade breakdown. Export growth was -1.8% Q/Q, revised from a -0.7% flash print. Import growth was revised up a tenth to 0.5% Q/Q. With fewer products sold on the export market than implied by the flash release, the contribution of net inventories to the quarterly GDP reading was
revised up 0.5pp to 1.0 points. Household consumption growth was revised down to -0.2% Q/Q from 0.0% in the flash, but this was offset by a two tenth upward revision to gross fixed capital investment to 0.0% Q/Q. Weakness in consumption growth appears to
have continued into Q2, with April consumer spending at 0.3% M/M (vs 0.8% cons).
SWEDEN APR RETAIL SALES +5.3% Y/Y (MNI)
MNI CHINA MONEY MARKET INDEX: Easing Expectations Fall for H2
MNI (Beijing) Chinese interbank money market traders saw a lower chance of further central bank easing in the second half of the year and expressed concern over marginal tightness in liquidity next month after recent cuts to policy rates and the reserve requirement ratio, MNI’s China Money Market Index indicated on Wednesday. Falling bets on further monetary loosening and an improved risk appetite after the China-U.S meeting in Geneva have pushed up long-dated government bond yields, traders told MNI. Further easing over the next six months was predicted by 67.4% of traders, the lowest this year though above the 50% threshold, taking the policy outlook sub-index to 16.3, the highest since December.
AUSTRALIA DATA (MNI): Aussie Monthly CPI Edges Higher at 2.4% Y/Y
Australia’s monthly CPI indicator rose 2.4% y/y in April, slightly above expectations, with the trimmed mean also ticking up to 2.8%, Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed Wednesday. The headline figure has held steady for three months, while the trimmed mean has remained largely stable for five, said Michelle Marquardt, head of prices statistics at the ABS. Food and non-alcoholic beverages (+3.1%), housing (+2.2%), and recreation and culture (+3.6%) drove the gains, the data showed.
German yields are 2-3bps higher, with the curve lightly steepening. Moves in long-end JGBs once again set the tone at the European open, following a soft 40-year auction overnight. Steepening flow in futures (Bund/Schatz block) will have also contributed to the EGB curve moves.
Gilts hold the bulk of their losses.
The trend cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish and the recent pullback appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend and recent gains maintain the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 5516.00, the Mar 3 high and the key bull trigger. Key support to watch lies at 5238.48, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this average would signal a possible reversal. A bullish trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest pullback appears to have been a correction. Last Friday’s sell-off resulted in a print below the 20-day EMA, at 5794.26. A key support lies at 5728.00, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a stronger reversal and signal scope for a deeper retracement. Sights are on the bull trigger at 5993.50, the May 20 high.
Time: 09:50 BST
WTI futures traded to a fresh S/T cycle high last Wednesday before finding resistance. The recovery since Apr 9, appears corrective. Key resistance to watch is $62.63, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal and open $65.82, Apr 4 high. For bears a reversal lower would refocus attention on $54.33, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. The price pattern on May 21 is a shooting star - a bearish signal. Recent gains in Gold signals the end of the corrective phase between Apr 22 - May 15. Medium-term trend signals are unchanged, they remain bullish. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A continuation higher would open $3435.6 next, the May 7 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at $3121.0, the May 15 low.
Time: 09:50 BST
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 28/05/2025 | 1100/0700 | ** | MBA Weekly Applications Index | |
| 28/05/2025 | 1255/0855 | ** | Redbook Retail Sales Index | |
| 28/05/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | Richmond Fed Survey | |
| 28/05/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | Dallas Fed Services Survey | |
| 28/05/2025 | 1500/1600 | BOE's Pill on monetary policy panel at Austria National Bank / SUERF | ||
| 28/05/2025 | 1530/1130 | ** | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Floating Rate Note | |
| 28/05/2025 | 1700/1300 | * | US Treasury Auction Result for 5 Year Note | |
| 28/05/2025 | 1800/1400 | FOMC Minutes | ||
| 28/05/2025 | 1800/1400 | *** | FOMC Minutes | |
| 28/05/2025 | 0000/2000 | New York Fed's John Williams | ||
| 29/05/2025 | 0130/1130 | * | Private New Capex and Expected Expenditure | |
| 29/05/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | ISTAT Consumer Confidence | |
| 29/05/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | ISTAT Business Confidence | |
| 29/05/2025 | 0900/1000 | BOE's Breeden opening remarks at conference on non-bank financial sector and financial stability | ||
| 29/05/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | Jobless Claims | |
| 29/05/2025 | 1230/0830 | * | Current account | |
| 29/05/2025 | 1230/0830 | * | Payroll employment | |
| 29/05/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | GDP | |
| 29/05/2025 | 1230/0830 | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | ||
| 29/05/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | NAR Pending Home Sales | |
| 29/05/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | Natural Gas Stocks | |
| 29/05/2025 | 1445/1545 | BOE's Saporta panellist on hedge funds' role in recent crises | ||
| 29/05/2025 | 1500/1100 | ** | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | |
| 29/05/2025 | 1530/1130 | ** | US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result | |
| 29/05/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result | |
| 29/05/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note | |
| 29/05/2025 | 1800/1400 | Fed Governor Adriana Kugler | ||
| 29/05/2025 | 1900/2000 | BOE's Bailey speech and fireside chat at Irish IAIM Dinner | ||
| 29/05/2025 | 2000/1600 | San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly |