MNI US OPEN - Tariff Talk Remains at Forefront of News Flow
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- NVIDIA GIVES MIXED OUTLOOK AFTER TWO YEARS OF BLOWOUT EARNINGS
- COMMERCE SECRETARY SAYS APRIL 2 IS BASELINE RECIPROCAL TARIFF DATE
- DONALD TRUMP THREATENS TO IMPOSE 25% TARIFFS ON EU GOODS
- US, RUSSIA MEET IN TURKEY IN EARLY STEP TOWARD RESTORING TIES
Figure 1: Germany IFO Price Expectations Relatively Steady in February
Source: IFO
NEWS
CORPORATE (BBG): Nvidia Gives Mixed Outlook After Two Years of Blowout Earnings
Nvidia Corp., the chipmaker at the center of an AI spending boom, delivered good-but-not-great quarterly numbers on Wednesday, drawing a muted response from investors accustomed to blowout results. Sales will be about $43 billion in the fiscal first quarter, which runs through April, Nvidia said in a statement. Analysts had estimated $42.3 billion on average, with some projections ranging as high as $48 billion. The company also warned that gross profit margins would be tighter than anticipated as it rushes to roll out a new chip design called Blackwell.
US (BBG): Lutnick Says April 2 is Baseline Reciprocal Tariff Date
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says the US will impose baseline reciprocal tariffs beginning on April 2, in an interview on Fox News. Earlier, President Trump said 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada would begin on April 2. A White House official said later Wednesday the deadline for those tariffs remains March 4, and Trump had not yet decided whether to grant another extension
US/EU (FT): Donald Trump Threatens to Impose 25% Tariffs on EU Goods
Donald Trump has threatened to slap 25 per cent tariffs on imports from the EU, as he lashed out at the bloc, saying it “was formed to screw the United States”. The remarks came during the first cabinet meeting of Trump’s second term on Wednesday, which featured an appearance by Elon Musk, the billionaire whom the US president has charged with slashing government spending. “We have made a decision and we’ll be announcing it very soon,” Trump said when questioned about his plans for EU tariffs.
US/CHINA (BBG): China Says Plans for Talks With US Military Are in the Works
China said work on discussions with the US military are in their early stages, a development that could lead to an easing of tensions spurred by Beijing ramping up naval activity. “There have been some preliminary plans and arrangements for exchanges in the foreseeable future,” Defense Ministry spokesman Wu Qian said Thursday at a regular briefing in Beijing. He said more information would be released “in due course,” without elaborating.
US/CHINA (BBG): Rubio Says US Can’t Let Russia Become China’s 'Junior Partner'
Secretary of State Marco Rubio mapped out US strategy for managing Russia’s close relationship with China, saying Washington wants to dilute ties without sowing division between the nuclear-armed neighbors. “I don’t know if we’ll ever be successful completely at peeling them off of a relationship with the Chinese,” Rubio told conservative media outlet Breitbart News, referring to Russia. “I also don’t think having China and Russia at each other’s neck is good for global stability because they’re both nuclear powers.”
US/RUSSIA (BBG): US, Russia Meet in Turkey in Early Step Toward Restoring Ties
The US and Russia started talks in Istanbul to restore diplomatic staff in each other’s countries, Russian state news service Tass reported, a step by President Donald Trump to ease years of strained ties. The meeting at the US Consul General’s residence in Turkey comes a week after groundbreaking talks between top Russian officials and their American counterparts in Saudi Arabia that are expected to pave the way for a summit between Trump and President Vladimir Putin.
US/UK (FT): Starmer to Warn Trump That Peace in Ukraine Needs US Military Cover
Sir Keir Starmer will warn President Donald Trump on Thursday that peace in Ukraine cannot be secured unless the US provides military cover for any European stabilisation force, in a high-stakes White House meeting. The push by the British prime minister comes despite Trump telling his first cabinet meeting on Wednesday: “I’m not going to make security guarantees beyond very much.”
US (WSJ): Supreme Court Grants Trump Request to Pause Foreign-Aid Payments Deadline
Chief Justice John Roberts temporarily halted a judge’s requirement that the Trump administration resume nearly $2 billion in foreign-aid payments before midnight, in an order issued hours before the deadline. Roberts’s order doesn’t resolve the dispute but gives the Supreme Court time to consider the administration’s claim that a lower court overstepped its authority when it ordered the government to quickly pay aid contractors for work completed before Feb. 13. Still, it reflects the first substantive action the Supreme Court has taken in the deluge of litigation that has followed the Trump administration’s aggressive actions to remake the federal government.
US (WSJ): Microsoft Urges Trump to Overhaul Curbs on AI Chip Exports
In a blog post that is scheduled to be released Thursday, Microsoft will call for Trump’s team to ease the limits on chips that can be used in data centers for training AI models so they no longer apply to a group of U.S. allies including India, Switzerland and Israel, company officials said. Those countries are in the second tier of a three-tier system that underpins the export controls.
JAPAN (FT): Japan Births Fall to Lowest in 125 Years
The number of babies born in Japan last year fell to the lowest level since records began 125 years ago as the country’s demographic crisis deepens and government efforts to reverse the decline continue to fail. Japan recorded 720,988 births in 2024, according to preliminary government figures published on Thursday. The number has declined for nine straight years and appears to be largely unaffected by financial and other government incentives for married couples to produce more children.
RBA (BBG): RBA Unlikely to Name Dissenting Board Members, Hauser Says
Australia’s central bank is unlikely to name dissenting board members under its new monetary policy committee regime as it tries to limit the amount of “noise” around interest rate decisions, according to Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser. Public speeches by members will also probably represent the board’s assessment rather than the individual’s view, the Reserve Bank’s No. 2 official told a parliamentary panel in Canberra on Thursday.
RUSSIA/N.KOREA (BBG): North Korea Sends More Troops to Russia to Support Putin’s War
North Korea has sent more than a thousand additional troops to Russia this year to help President Vladimir Putin’s war efforts against Ukraine, South Korea’s Yonhap News reported. The troops were dispatched in the first two months of this year, Yonhap said Thursday, citing military sources it did not identify. Pyongyang already dispatched thousands of soldiers last year to bolster Russia’s armed forces. South Korea’s National Intelligence Service said there are signs of additional troop deployment, but it is still trying to confirm the exact size of the latest dispatch, broadcaster YTN said.
INDIA (BBG): India Weighs Tariff Cuts on Cars, Chemicals as Trump Duties Loom
Indian officials are exploring ways to lower tariffs on a wide range of imports, including cars and chemicals, in a bid to evade US President Donald Trump’s threatened reciprocal levies, according to people familiar with the matter. Officials in New Delhi are discussing reducing duties for automobiles, some agricultural products, chemicals, critical pharmaceuticals, as well as certain medical devices and electronics, the people said, asking not to be identified as the plans aren’t finalized.
SOUTH AFRICA (BBG): South Africa Seeks ‘Meaningful Deal’ With US Amid Strained Ties
South Africa wants to reach a broad-ranging agreement with the US on diplomacy and trade amid strained ties between the two nations, President Cyril Ramaphosa said. A dispute over Pretoria’s land and foreign policies has put it firmly in US President Donald Trump’s crosshairs, with Washington halting almost all aid and the secretaries of state and finance skipping Group of 20 meetings in South Africa.
DATA
EUROZONE DATA (MNI): Jan Credit Data Suggests Restrictiveness Waning, But DE/FR Weak
Eurozone lending growth to non-financial corporates (NFCs) and households increased in January, a sign that the restrictiveness of ECB policy is waning. However, accelerations were centred in Italy and (especially) Spain, with German and French growth still relatively subdued. Given the latest Bank Lending Survey signalled a tightening of lending standards alongside increases in loan demand, centrist/dovish policy makers will probably still view financing conditions as tight, with broader economic weakness and tariff uncertainty necessitating additional rate cuts.
GERMANY DATA (MNI): IFO Price Expectations Broadly Unchanged in February
IFO price expectations in Germany remained broadly unchanged in February, at 19.4 points, from January's 19.5. "For service providers, the indicator fell to 24.0 points, down from 32.2 points in January... price pressure is easing somewhat for consumer-related service providers (26.9 points, down from 27.5 points)", IFO comments. "In the retail sector, price expectations rose to 33.2 points, up from 30.5 points in January. This was mainly due to trade in food and beverage (46.6 points, up from 39.6 points), while price plans in the rest of the retail sector remained unchanged at 32.9 points."
SPAIN DATA (MNI): Spain Core CPI Below Expectations
- SPAIN FEB FLASH CPI +0.4% M/M, +3% Y/Y
- SPAIN FEB FLASH CORE CPI +2.1% Y/Y
Spanish February preliminary HICP came in in line with expectations on the yearly rate at +2.9% Y/Y (vs +2.9% cons and prior) and the sequential reading at 0.4% M/M (0.4% cons; -0.1% prior). Core HICP was also 2.1% (2.4% prior). This was the lowest core HICP since December 2021. The national CPI also came in as expected at +3.0% Y/Y (vs 3.0% cons; 2.9% prior) and 0.4% M/M (vs 0.4% cons; 0.2% prior). Core CPI came in below expectations, at +2.1% Y/Y (vs 2.3% cons; 2.4% prior). Headline CPI was driven upwards by higher electricity prices, INE comments. Car fuel had a downward contribution vs January, meanwhile.
FRANCE DATA (MNI): France PPI Y/Y Remains Negative Though Highest Since Dec'23
- FRANCE JAN PPI +0.7% M/M, -2.1% Y/Y
France January PPI fell -2.1% Y/Y (vs -3.8% prior). This is the fourteenth consecutive month where PPI has fallen on an annual basis, though is the highest reading since December 2023. On a sequential basis, PPI rose 0.7% M/M (vs 0.9% revised prior from 1.0%). We note that this is non-seasonally adjusted data and the prior four January prints have been large outliers, mainly due to energy costs and suppy chain disruptions. Looking at the decade before that (2011-2020), the average January print is close to flat.
SWITZERLAND DATA (MNI): Q4 GDP Stronger Than Expected, Appears Broad-Based
- SWISS Q4 GDP +0.2% Q/Q, +1.5% Y/Y
Swiss Q4 GDP came above the flash release at +0.5% Q/Q on a sports-event and seasonally adjusted basis. This follows Q3's +0.2%, and shows the Swiss economy is continuing its gradual growth trajectory amid significant growth concerns in the Eurozone. "Growth was driven roughly equally by industry and the services sector", SECO comments - that is in line with its conclusion from the flash release.
NORWAY DATA (MNI): LFS Survey Signals Steady Labour Market Conditions
The Norwegian seasonally adjusted LFS unemployment rate was 3.9% in January, down a touch from 4.0% in December. The LFS rate has fluctuated between 3.9 and 4.0% for the last seven months, after reaching a high of 4.2% in June 2024. As such, labour market conditions implied by the LFS remain steady on an aggregate basis. Norges Bank remain on track to deliver a 25bp cut on March 27. The LFS unemployment rate Sahm rule (the difference between the current 3mma of the unemployment rate and its minimum value over the last twelve months) has fallen to zero from a high of 0.7pp in the middle of last year.
AUSTRALIA DATA (MNI): Advertised Salary Growth Stabilising as Jobs Market Tight
January SEEK advertised salary data is showing a gradual pick up in wages offered in line with the labour market tightening "a little further in late 2024", as the RBA stated in its February meeting statement. Advertised wages rose 0.3% m/m last month to be up 3.6% y/y, the third straight month at this annual rate signalling stabilisation after moderating since the September 2023 peak. The monthly increase has been gradually rising since it troughed at 0.23% m/m in October.
AUSTRALIA DATA (MNI): Private Investment Weakened in Q4, GDP Out March 5
Private capital expenditure volumes unexpectedly fell 0.2% q/q in Q4 after an upwardly-revised +1.6% q/q in Q3. It looks like private investment will be soft in the Q4 national accounts published on March 5, especially plant and equipment. The RBA noted at its February meeting that "there has been continued subdued growth in private demand". Q4 GDP may see stronger growth in private consumption.
FOREX: USD/JPY Recovery Holds, Tariff Talk Keeps CAD Off Lows
- The greenback is firmer against all others early Thursday, however has edged off the best levels of the session, helping GBP/USD remain within range of yesterday's highs at 1.2716. Clearance back above here would resume the bull trend in the pair, opening levels last seen in mid-December.
- Tariff chatter continues to dominate the headlines, but their longer-lasting effectiveness appears to be dwindling. The floating of an extension to the tariff deadline for Canada and Mexico by one month has underpinned sentiment, but even the gains for US equity futures are more minimal at this stage. USD/CAD resumed its climb late yesterday, but the pair holds below yesterday's highs of 1.4368.
- USD/JPY is holding early gains through the first few hours of the London session. Notably, the pair has shown above a down trendline drawn off the Feb12 high on the 15min candle chart (Y149.54 last), the break above which saw volumes pick up, and price action accelerate. This keeps the JPY weaker against all others in G10, and while the progress this morning is inconsequential given the bearish trend that's dominated over the past two months - we look to Y151.75 as the key level for any recovery, marking the 20-day EMA. A break above here would be the first concrete technical signal of a trend change.
- Weekly jobless claims, durable goods orders, secondary GDP and the core PCE price index make for a busy US session, to be followed up swiftly by pending home sales and the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index.
- The last of which will be carefully watched for any repetitions from the other regional Fed releases this week, all of which have indicated a sharp increase in business uncertainty as a consequence of tariffs and political uncertainty.
EGBS: Pressured by Italian Supply and NatGas Rally
Major EGB futures have been pressured by this morning’s Italian supply and a sharp reversal higher in European natural gas futures.
- Bund futures are -6 ticks at 132.61, unwinding yesterday’s post settlement rally which came amid fresh US tariff threats against the EU. Key near-term resistance at 132.97 (Feb 13 and Feb 26 high) remains intact. Light support in Bund is seen at 132.58.
- The German curve has lightly twist steepened, with 2-year yields 1bp lower and 30-year yields 2bps higher.
- Spanish flash February headline HICP was in line with consensus at 2.9% Y/Y, though core CPI was lower-than-expected at 2.1% (vs 2.3% cons, 2.4% prior).
- Meanwhile, Eurozone January money and credit data signalled that the restrictiveness of ECB policy is waning, though German and French lending conditions remain subdued.
- 10-year peripheral spreads to Bunds are slightly wider, with European equities also softer today (albeit off lows). 5/10-year BTP and CCTeu supply was digested smoothly.
- The accounts of the ECB’s January meeting are due at 1230GMT, though broader macro focus will be on the US Q4 GDP readings.
GILTS: A Little Softer in Wake of Auction
Pressure seen ahead of the GBP3.25bln 4.375% Jan-40 gilt auction has extended a little given tepid demand.
- The LAP of the auction was below pre-auction mids, while the cover ratio was sub-3.00x, which added weight,
- Broader supply-related pressure and a move higher in European natural gas prices weighed ahead of the auction.
- Futures -13 at 93.03. The short-term technical structure remains bullish.
- Initial resistance located at yesterday’s high (93.51), while support comes in at the February 25 low (92.72).
- Yields 1-2bp higher across the curve.
- BoE-dated OIS little changed on the day showing ~56.5bp of cuts through year end.
- SONIA futures flat to 2.0 lower.
- Little of note on the UK calendar today, which will leave focus on macro and cross market cues.
- The Trump-Starmer press conference is scheduled after the gilt close (19:00 GMT).
EQUITIES: Eurostoxx 50 Futures Remain in Bull-Mode Set Up, Highlighting Uptrend
The trend condition in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains bullish and the recent pullback appears to have been a correction. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Sights are on 5574.57 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch is 5407.46, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. The latest move down in S&P E-Minis appears corrective, however, price has breached support at 6014.00, the Feb 10 low. This exposed a key support at 5935.50, the Feb 3 low, that was pierced on Tuesday. A clear break of it would allow for a deeper retracement. MA studies are in a bull-mode condition that suggests the trend direction remains up. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 ‘24 high.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 113.8 pts or +0.3% at 38256.17 and the TOPIX ended 19.85 pts higher or +0.73% at 2736.25.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 7.848 pts or +0.23% at 3388.062 and the HANG SENG ended 69.64 pts lower or -0.29% at 23718.29.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 202.76 pts or -0.89% at 22590.71, FTSE 100 higher by 8.95 pts or +0.1% at 8740.41, CAC 40 down 22.21 pts or -0.27% at 8121.48 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 35.96 pts or -0.65% at 5492.15.
- Dow Jones mini up 107 pts or +0.25% at 43613, S&P 500 mini up 33.75 pts or +0.57% at 6004.5, NASDAQ mini up 134.25 pts or +0.63% at 21321.25.
Time: 09:55 GMT
COMMODITIES: Recent Sell-Off Continues to Reinforce Bearish WTI Futures Theme
A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and this week’s sell-off reinforces current conditions. The move lower has resulted in a clear breach of support at $70.20, the Feb 6 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started on Jan 15 and paves the way for an extension towards $67.75, the Dec 20 ‘24 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $74.06, the Feb 3 high. Despite a pullback, a bull cycle in Gold remains in play. Recent fresh cycle highs once again confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Sights are on the $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection. The first key support to watch is $2882.6, the 20-day EMA.
- WTI Crude up $0.55 or +0.8% at $69.15
- Natural Gas up $0.03 or +0.68% at $3.985
- Gold spot down $28.75 or -0.99% at $2887.57
- Copper up $2.55 or +0.56% at $461.45
- Silver down $0.06 or -0.2% at $31.7936
- Platinum up $3.45 or +0.36% at $972.11
Time: 09:55 GMT
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 27/02/2025 | 1230/1330 |  EU | Publication of MonPol Meeting Account | |
| 27/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | * |  CA | Current account |
| 27/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | * | CA | Payroll employment |
| 27/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** |  US | Jobless Claims |
| 27/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 27/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Durable Goods New Orders |
| 27/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | GDP |
| 27/02/2025 | 1415/0915 | US | Kansas City Fed's Jeff Schmid | |
| 27/02/2025 | 1500/1000 | ** | US | NAR Pending Home Sales |
| 27/02/2025 | 1500/1000 | US | Fed Governor Michael Barr | |
| 27/02/2025 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 27/02/2025 | 1600/1100 | ** | US | Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index |
| 27/02/2025 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result |
| 27/02/2025 | 1630/1130 | ** | US | US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result |
| 27/02/2025 | 1645/1145 | US | Fed Governor Michelle Bowman | |
| 27/02/2025 | 1815/1315 | US | Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack | |
| 27/02/2025 | 2015/1515 | US | Philly Fed's Pat Harker | |
| 28/02/2025 | 2330/0830 | ** |  JP | Tokyo CPI |
| 28/02/2025 | 2350/0850 | ** | JP | Industrial Production |
| 28/02/2025 | 2350/0850 | * | JP | Retail Sales (p) |
| 28/02/2025 | 0700/0800 | *** |  SE | GDP |
| 28/02/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** | SE | Retail Sales |
| 28/02/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** |  DE | Import/Export Prices |
| 28/02/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** | DE | Retail Sales |
| 28/02/2025 | 0700/0700 |  GB | BOE's Ramsden speech on MonPol in geopolitical fragmentation | |
| 28/02/2025 | 0700/0700 | * | GB | Nationwide House Price Index |
| 28/02/2025 | 0730/0830 | ** |  CH | Retail Sales |
| 28/02/2025 | 0745/0845 | *** |  FR | HICP (p) |
| 28/02/2025 | 0745/0845 | ** | FR | Consumer Spending |
| 28/02/2025 | 0745/0845 | *** | FR | GDP (f) |
| 28/02/2025 | 0800/0900 | ** | CH | KOF Economic Barometer |
| 28/02/2025 | 0855/0955 | ** | DE | Unemployment |
| 28/02/2025 | 0900/1000 | *** | DE | North Rhine Westphalia CPI |
| 28/02/2025 | 0900/1000 | *** | DE | Bavaria CPI |
| 28/02/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | ECB Consumer Expectations Survey |
| 28/02/2025 | 0900/1000 | *** | DE | Baden Wuerttemberg CPI |
| 28/02/2025 | 1000/1100 | *** |  IT | HICP (p) |
| 28/02/2025 | 1300/1400 | *** | DE | HICP (p) |
| 28/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | CA | GDP - Canadian Economic Accounts |
| 28/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | CA | Gross Domestic Product by Industry |
| 28/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | CA | CA GDP by Industry and GDP Canadian Economic Accounts Combined |
| 28/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Personal Income and Consumption |
| 28/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Advance Trade, Advance Business Inventories |
| 28/02/2025 | 1445/0945 | *** | US | MNI Chicago PMI |
| 28/02/2025 | 1600/1100 | CA | Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected) | |
| 28/02/2025 | 1800/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
