Figure 1: Broad dollar weakness shifts focus back to post-election cycle lows for the USD Index

Source: MNI/Bloomberg
FED (MNI): Fed Could Resume Cuts This Year if Tariffs Fall - Waller
Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller said Sunday the U.S. central bank could resume its trajectory of normalizing interest rates later this year if tariffs overall settle closer to 10% with higher country and sector specific taxes negotiated down over time. He argued tariffs would lead to a one-time boost to prices that would raise inflation temporarily as long as longer term inflation expectations remain anchored, as they currently appear. "Given my belief that any tariff-induced inflation will not be persistent and that inflation expectations are anchored, I support looking through any tariff effects on near term-inflation when setting the policy rate," he said in remarks prepared for a Bank of Korea conference in Seoul.
US (BBG): Trump to Hike Steel, Aluminum Tariffs to Aid Nippon-US Steel
President Donald Trump said he would be increasing tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50% from 25%, saying the move would help protect American workers, as he visited a United States Steel Corp. plant on Friday. Trump had gone to the plant near Pittsburgh to champion an expected deal between US Steel and Japan’s Nippon Steel Corp. as one that would ensure the iconic American firm remains US-owned and operated, even as many details on the agreement remain vague. He said the steel tariff increase would benefit the new venture’s American operations.
US (NYT): Trump Aides Insist That Tariffs Will Remain, Even After Court Ruling
President Trump’s top economic advisers stressed on Sunday that they would not be deterred by a recent court decision declaring many of the administration’s tariffs to be illegal, pointing to other authorities the White House could invoke to pressure China and other nations into trade negotiations. They also signaled that Mr. Trump had no plans to extend an original 90-day pause on some of his steepest tariff rates, raising the odds that those duties — the mere announcement of which had roiled markets — could take effect as planned in July. “Rest assured, tariffs are not going away,” Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, said during an appearance on “Fox News Sunday.”
US (WSJ): Trump Looks to Shore Up Support for GOP Megabill
President Trump plans to push lawmakers on his tax-and-spending megabill this week in an effort to overcome Republican concerns about deficit spending. As the White House also seeks to get trade talks with China back on track, Trump plans to have a call with Chinese leader Xi Jinping this week in hopes of easing tensions that have risen in recent days, administration officials said. Trump is expected to amplify calls for Republican unity around what the party has branded the “big, beautiful bill” and speak with Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R., S.D.) about the next steps as lawmakers return from recess, a senior official said Sunday.
US (FT): Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Insists US Will ‘Never Default’ on Its Debt
Treasury secretary Scott Bessent has insisted the US would never default on its debt as he sought to assuage Wall Street concerns over the state of the country’s public finances. “The United States of America is never going to default, that is never going to happen,” Bessent told CBS’s Face the Nation on Sunday. “We are on the warning track and we will never hit the wall.” Bessent dismissed concerns raised by JPMorgan Chase chief executive Jamie Dimon on Friday that the US bond market would “crack” under the weight of the country’s rising debt. “I have known Jamie a long time and for his entire career he’s made predictions like this. Fortunately, none of them have come true,” he said.
US/CHINA (BBG): China Says US Seriously Undermines Consensus at Geneva Talks
China urges the US to immediately correct its wrong practices and safeguard the consensus reached at the Geneva talks, according to a statement from the Ministry of Commerce. The US has recently announced a number of “discriminatory” measures against China including Chinese students visa restrictions, AI chip export control. The US move has constantly been provoking new economic and trade frictions, exacerbating the uncertainty and instability of bilateral economic and trade relations.
US/JAPAN (BBG): Japan’s Akazawa Reportedly Mulls Return to US This Week
Japan’s top trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa is considering returning to the US for another round of trade negotiations this week as expectations mount for a deal as early as this month. Akazawa may leave Japan on Thursday to hold discussions with his counterparts including US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent the following day, TV Asahi reported, citing an unnamed government official. Public broadcaster NHK also said Akazawa is mulling a visit later this week.
US/IRAN (BBG): Iran Says US Hasn’t Given Clarity on Sanctions Relief in Talks
Iran warned it won’t strike a nuclear deal with the US unless Washington gives assurances that any agreement will include sanctions removal. “No agreement will happen unless we have clear and reliable assurances about the end of sanctions,” Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, said in press conference in Tehran on Monday. “So far, we haven’t seen what we need to see from the other side — only repeated waves of sanctions before each round of negotiations.”
OIL (BBG): OPEC+ Agrees on Third Oil Supply Surge Despite Russia’s Qualms
OPEC+ agreed to surge oil output for the third month in a row despite reservations from key member Russia, doubling down on a historic policy shift that has sent crude prices sinking. Oil-producing nations led by Saudi Arabia agreed during a video conference on Saturday to add 411,000 barrels a day to the market in July, according to a statement on the group’s website. The hike matches increases scheduled for May and June, marking a radical reversal from defending prices to actively driving them lower.
BOC (MNI): Legislate BOC Inflation Goal, Former Deputy Wilkins Says
The BOC’s independence needs to be strengthened through reforms, such as enshrining the inflation target in legislation, former Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins said, warning that global political pressures on central banks could spill over into Canada. Autonomy was gained through institutional bargains rather than being set in law and that leaves it vulnerable even with a long track record of curbing inflation, she said during a weekend lecture at the Canadian Economics Association annual meeting in Montreal.
POLAND (MNI): Nawrocki Wins Presidential Race, Risk of More Hostile Cohabitation Rises
Karol Nawrocki clinched victory in Poland's neck-and-neck presidential election with 50.9% of the vote and will succeed Andrzej Duda as head of state on August 6. Exit polls released when polling stations closed last night suggested that government ally Trzaskowski was the front-runner, but this changed in a couple of subsequent late polls accounting for partial results and Nawrocki crossed the finishing line as the winner. The result is a major setback for the pro-EU governing coalition led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk's party. It was hoping that the election of a sympathetic President would allow for a fresh legislative push and unlock potential for the implementation of key pledges from the 2023 parliamentary campaign. While the President of Poland has limited constructive powers, they can veto legislation, which can only be overruled by a qualified majority of three-fifths votes in parliament.
RUSSIA/UKRAINE (MNI): Ukraine Hits Russian Bomber Fleet Ahead of 2nd Ceasefire Talks
On June 2, Ukraine launched a coordinated drone attack, destroying more than 40 warplanes from Russia's long-range bomber fleet in five regions across Russia. US and Ukrainian officials said Washington was not forewarned of the attack. In a statement on X, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, "Russia suffered significant
losses - entirely justified and deserved." Prominent Ukraine war analyst, Mick Ryan, notes on Substack that, "Ukraine has slowly but surely evolved what might now be one of the most effective long-range strike systems in the world." The drone attack came ahead of a second round of Ukraine-Russia ceasefire talks expected to get underway in Istanbul at around 05:00 ET 10:00 BST. Kyiv's delegation will again be led by Defence Minister Rustem Umerov. The more junior Russian team will again be led by Kremlin aide Vladimir Medinsky.
EU/CHINA (BBG): EU Poised to Curb China’s Access to Medical Device Procurement
The European Union is set to curb Chinese medical device manufacturers’ access to public procurement contracts in the bloc, according to a person familiar with the matter. EU countries are due to vote on the proposed measure as early as Monday, said the person, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss private deliberations. The move, if backed by member states, would be the first action taken by the EU based on its International Procurement Instrument, a 2022 law that’s meant to promote reciprocity in access to public procurement markets.
UK (The Times): What Is in the UK Defence Review? What We Know So Far
Britain faces a “new era of threat” including the “immediate and pressing” danger of Russia, the long-awaited strategic defence review will warn on Monday. The report, which will be published after nearly a year, consists of 48,000 words and is about 130 pages long. The government is expected to accept all 62 recommendations in full. On the eve of publication, John Healey, the defence secretary, said Britain must be prepared for a military attack by Russia. The review will also focus on other countries, including China, which is not described as an enemy but as a “sophisticated and persistent challenge”.
BOJ (BBG): BOJ’s Minutes Show Wide Range of Views on Pace of Bond Purchases
A record of the Bank of Japan’s meetings last month with bond market participants shows there were divergent views regarding the optimum pace of the bank’s purchases, with authorities expected to outline their buying plans after a policy meeting later this month. One participant said the bank should accelerate the pace of reductions of monthly debt purchases from the current pace of its pullback, the minutes of the May 20-21 meetings shows. Another was of the view that the pace of cutbacks should be slowed, while yet another noted the need for a temporary suspension of bond purchase reductions.
MEXICO (MNI): Markets Await Preliminary Results From Judicial Elections After Low Turnout
The Mexican peso is trading on the front-foot in early trade at the start of the week, as the market awaits preliminary results from yesterday’s judicial elections. In the first of two elections, voters were choosing 881 judges, including nine Supreme Court justices and five judges for a new Judicial Discipline tribunal. Turnout was reported to have been lower than expected, with only around 13% of eligible voters participating. The preliminary results for the Supreme Court are only expected tomorrow, followed by the results for the Disciplinary Court on Wednesday. Final results may take two weeks to be announced. Analysts believe it will be complicated to understand the short- and long-term economic implications of the vote.
EUROZONE DATA (MNI): Mixed Export Orders Across Countries
The Eurozone May manufacturing PMI confirmed flash estimates at 49.4 (vs 49.0 prior), with an upward revision in France offset by a downward revision in Germany. The stronger-than-expected Spanish data was also countered by a slightly softer-than-expected Italian reading. The Eurozone index has improved consistently through this year, despite the imposition of and associated uncertainty from US tariffs. It's reasonable to assume that ECB rate cuts are having a positive impact here. We estimate the Germany/France combined manufacturing PMI at 48.7 (vs 48.5 prior), while the ex-Germany/France reading was 50.3 (vs 49.6 prior), the first expansionary reading since March 2023.
SPAIN DATA (MNI): Some Signs of Tariff Reprieve in May Manufacturing PMI
The Spanish May manufacturing PMI surprisingly moved into expansionary territory for the first time since January at 50.5, above the six-analyst strong consensus of 48.4 (vs 48.1 prior). The details of the release suggest some tariff reprieve was at play in May, but sales volumes were still down on the domestic and export markets. Key notes from the release: "Supporting the PMI was a return to growth in manufacturing output following April's contraction"..."Some panellists linked higher production to a relatively better trend in underlying demand and a partial lifting of global tariff uncertainty that weighed so heavily on market activity in April".
ITALY DATA (MNI): European Demand Helps Export Sales Rise
The Italian May manufacturing PMI was a little weaker-than-expected at 49.2 (vs 49.6 cons, 49.3 prior). The PMI nonetheless consolidates the 5.8 rise seen in April. The index has still been in contractionary territory in each month since March 2024 though. Despite ongoing tariff uncertainty, Eurozone demand helped export sales rise in May. Key notes from the release: "There was a fractional decrease in factory orders in May, contrasting favourably with the sharp declines seen at the start of the year. Where a drop was reported, panellists noted weakness across the autos and electronic industries, in particular".
UK DATA (MNI): Upward Manufacturing PMI Revision, But Details Weak
The UK May manufacturing PMI saw a notable upward revision to 46.4 (vs 45.1 cons and prior), but the details of the report remain weak. The index has been in contraction since September 2024. Key notes from the release: "There were some tentative signs that the sector may have turned a corner, however. Survey indices monitoring trends in output and new business rose for the second month in a row, signalling an easing in their respective downturns".
UK DATA (FT): UK House Price Growth in May Exceeds Forecasts
UK house prices rose more than expected in May, supported by low unemployment and strong wage growth, the lender Nationwide said. The average cost of a property rose 0.5 per cent between April and May to £273,427, mostly reversing the 0.6 per cent fall in the previous month, showed data released on Monday. Prices rose at an annual rate of 3.5 per cent, up from 3.4 per cent in the previous month. Both are stronger than the 0.1 per cent month-on-month increase and the 2.9 per cent annual rise forecast by economists polled by LSEG.
UK APR M4 MONEY SUPPLY +0% M/M, +3.2% Y/Y (MNI)
UK BOE APR MORTGAGE APPROVALS 60,463 (MNI)
UK BOE APR SECURED LENDING GBP-0.76 BLN (MNI)
UK BOE APR CONSUMER CREDIT GBP1.58 BLN (MNI)
SWITZERLAND DATA (MNI): Q1 GDP Revised Up; Drivers Appear Only Partially Vulnerable
Swiss Q1 growth came above the flash release at 0.8% Q/Q on a sports-event and seasonally-adjusted basis and follows Q4's 0.6%. "The services sector delivered broad based growth. Domestic demand developed positively. Meanwhile, the chemical and pharmaceutical industry expanded at an above-average rate", SECO comments. This means that despite the strong print being underpinned by tariff front-running in the US, the broad-based contributions from the services sector point towards some underlying strength.
SWITZERLAND DATA (MNI): Retail Sales Weak in April, Clothing/Footwear Driven
Swiss real retail sales were rather weak in April, printing -0.3% M/M (seasonally-adjusted) and 1.3% Y/Y (calendar adjusted, weakest yearly rate since June 2024). Overall, the print might be consistent with Swiss economic conditions cooling a little in Q2 vs a strong first quarter - the KOF barometer also indicated softer sentiment for the months ahead. On a broad Y/Y 3m average basis, Swiss retail sales continue to print above their long-term average recently - suggesting that the sector overall is in solid shape. However, the drop from March was noticeable also here.
SWEDEN DATA (MNI): Manufacturing PMI Still More Optimistic Than Economic Tendency Indicator
The Swedish May manufacturing PMI fell slightly to 53.6 (vs 54.2 prior), broadly in line with the year-to-date average. The PMI has presented a more optimistic perspective of manufacturing activity than the Economic Tendency Indicator since 2024. However, in Q1 the sector saw gross value added at -2.0% Q/Q and -3.5% Y/Y. May saw a fall in new orders to 51.3 (vs 55.3 prior). Export orders eased to 49.2 (vs 49.8 prior), the lowest since July 2024. Domestic orders fell more notably to 50.0 (vs 54.2 prior).
JAPAN DATA (MNI): Japan Q1 Capex Higher; GDP Seen Revised Up
Combined capital investment by non-financial Japanese companies excluding software rose 1.8% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, up from a 1.3% increase in Q4, a quarterly survey released Monday by the Ministry of Finance showed. The MOF survey, based on demand-side data, is a key input for GDP revision calculations and points to an upward revision of Q1 capex from the preliminary estimate of +1.4%, which was derived from supply-side data alone. Based on the MOF data on capex and inventories, the government is likely to revise Q1 real GDP higher from the preliminary -0.2% q/q, or an annualised -0.7%, barring large revisions in other components.
Sovereign rating reviews of note from after hours on Friday include:
Gilts are just off lows after the latest round of tariff-inspired worry (Trump’s latest metal tariff increase threats) and higher oil prices (in light of the OPEC+ meeting) seem to increase the market-based risks of persistent inflation over at least the medium-term.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Jun-25 | 4.214 | +0.3 |
Aug-25 | 4.105 | -10.5 |
Sep-25 | 4.064 | -14.7 |
Nov-25 | 3.929 | -28.2 |
Dec-25 | 3.858 | -35.3 |
Feb-26 | 3.754 | -45.7 |
Mar-26 | 3.742 | -46.9 |
The trend cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and recent weakness appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. Sights are on 5516.00, the Mar 3 high and the key bull trigger. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bull theme. Key support to watch lies at 5254.09, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal a possible reversal. The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish. Last Thursday’s initial gains delivered a print above 5993.50, the May 20 high and a bull trigger. The break highlights a resumption of the uptrend and maintains a price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. 6000.00 has been pierced, an extension would open 6057.00 next, the Mar 3 high. Key support lies at 5742.22, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a reversal.
Time: 09:55 BST
WTI futures are in consolidation mode. The contract traded to a fresh short-term cycle high on May 21 before finding resistance. A bear threat remains intact and the recovery since Apr 9, appears corrective. Key resistance is $62.47, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal and open $65.82, the Apr 4 high. For bears a reversal lower would refocus attention on $54.33, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. A bullish theme in Gold remains intact and recent gains signal the end of the corrective phase between Apr 22 - May 15. Medium-term trend signals are bullish too - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would open $3435.6 next, the May 7 high. Key support and the bear trigger to watch, has been defined at $3121.0, the May 15 low.
Time: 09:55 BST
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 02/06/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (final) | |
| 02/06/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | ISM Manufacturing Index | |
| 02/06/2025 | 1400/1000 | * | Construction Spending | |
| 02/06/2025 | 1400/1000 | * | Construction Spending | |
| 02/06/2025 | 1400/1000 | Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan | ||
| 02/06/2025 | 1400/1500 | BOE's Mann fireside chat at Fed's IF 75th anniversary conference | ||
| 02/06/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill | |
| 02/06/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill | |
| 02/06/2025 | 1630/1830 | ECB Lagarde Video Message at Women In Finance Event | ||
| 02/06/2025 | 1645/1245 | Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee | ||
| 02/06/2025 | 1700/1300 | Fed Chair Jerome Powell | ||
| 02/06/2025 | 1700/1800 | BOE Greene Fireside Chat | ||
| 03/06/2025 | 0130/1130 | Business Indicators | ||
| 03/06/2025 | 0130/1130 | Balance of Payments: Current Account | ||
| 03/06/2025 | 0145/0945 | ** | S&P Global Final China Manufacturing PMI | |
| 03/06/2025 | 0630/0830 | *** | CPI | |
| 03/06/2025 | 0700/0300 | * | Turkey CPI | |
| 03/06/2025 | 0900/1100 | *** | HICP (p) | |
| 03/06/2025 | 0900/1100 | ** | Unemployment | |
| 03/06/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | Gilt Outright Auction Result | |
| 03/06/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | Gilt Outright Auction Result | |
| 03/06/2025 | 0915/1015 | BOE Bailey, Breeden, Dhingra, Mann At TSC | ||
| 03/06/2025 | - | *** | Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales | |
| 03/06/2025 | 1255/0855 | ** | Redbook Retail Sales Index | |
| 03/06/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | Factory New Orders | |
| 03/06/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | JOLTS jobs opening level | |
| 03/06/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | JOLTS quits Rate | |
| 03/06/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | Factory New Orders | |
| 03/06/2025 | 1645/1245 | Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee | ||
| 03/06/2025 | 1700/1300 | Fed Governor Lisa Cook | ||
| 03/06/2025 | 1930/1530 | Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan |