US LABOR MARKET: MNI US Payrolls Preview: Revisions And Seasonality In Focus
Feb-05 19:59
January’s employment report will receive almost as much attention for comprehensive revisions as for the monthly nonfarm payroll gains, which are expected to slow to 170-180k from December’s strong 256k.
- January is typically a difficult month to forecast payrolls (estimates range from 135k-225k), with a pronounced seasonal pattern that includes large post-holiday layoffs.
- Wildfires in Southern California could act as a small drag this month – we have seen some estimates on the order of circa 20k – although extremely cold weather didn’t fall in the payrolls reference period.
- The unemployment rate is expected to print 4.1% for a second month, while average hourly earnings and hours worked are seen relatively steady.
- The annual revisions to the establishment survey are seen lowering the level of payrolls that had previously been registered for March 2024 by around 700k, while we’ll be closely watching the revisions to the seasonal factors for the past five years. New population controls for the household survey also feature.
- There is little to no urgency among Federal Reserve policymakers to ease policy in the near future, but a large downside miss could crack the door back open to a March rate cut.
- The revisions could make it hard to get a clean immediate read on the January data’s implications for monetary policy, but with rate cuts being priced out, the FOMC may prove more sensitive to downside than upside surprises after a period in which downside risks to the labor market appeared to have dissipated.
- PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE:
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
EURJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
Jan-06 19:57
- RES 4: 166.51 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 166.10 High Nov 6
- RES 2: 165.04 High Nov 15 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 164.02 High Jan 6
- PRICE: 162.54 @ 07:05 GMT Jan 6
- SUP 1: 160.91 Low Jan 2
- SUP 2: 160.54 50.0% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 159.51 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 158.67 Low Dec 11
EURJPY traded higher Monday but remains below the Dec 30 high. The recent move down appears corrective and a bullish S/T condition is intact. The next support to watch lies at 160.54, 50.0% of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle. The 61.8% level is at 159.51. Monday’s gains are a positive development, a resumption of the uptrend would open 165.04, the Nov 15 high. Clearance of this hurdle would expose 166.69, the Oct 31 high and a major resistance.
PIPELINE: Single Day Corporate Issuance Nearing Record $50B
Jan-06 19:50
Corporate issuance rises to the largest single day on record with $48.8B so far with Saudi Arabia and World Bank details yet to be announced.
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 01/06 $8.5B #Mexico $2B 5Y +170, $4B 12Y +230, $2.5B 30Y +255
- 01/06 $3B #Broadcom $1.1B +3Y +53, $800M +5Y +63, $1.1B +7Y +70
- 01/06 $3B #CRH SMW Finance $1.25B 5Y +75, $1.25B 10Y +90, $500M 30Y +105
- 01/06 $2.75B #NAB $750M 5Y +50, $750M 5Y SOFR+79, $1.25B 11NC10 +130
- 01/06 $2.75B #National Australia Bank (NAB) $750M 5Y +50, $750M 5Y SOFR+79, $1.25B 11NC10 +130
- 01/06 $2.6B #Toyota Motor Cr $650M 2Y +35, $400M 2Y SOFR+47, $700M 5Y +58, $850M 10Y +75
- 01/06 $2.5B #Societe Generale $1B 4.25NC3.25 +120, $500M 4.25NC3.25 SOFR+141, $1B 8.25NC7.25 +160
- 01/06 $2.3B #CIBC $1B 3NC2 +60, $400M 3NC2 SOFR+72, $900M 6NC5 +83
- 01/06 $2.25B #MUFG $1.1B 6NC5 +78, $1.15B 11NC10 +95
- 01/06 $2.25B #BNP Paribas 8NC7 +127
- 01/06 $2B #Hyundai Cap Am $850M 3Y +75, $350M 3Y SOFR+92, $800M 5Y +93
- 01/06 $1.9B #EDF $700M 10Y +120, $800M 30Y +155, $400M 2064 Tap +170
- 01/06 $1.75B #JBS $1B 10Y +135, $750M 30Y +162.5
- 01/06 $1.5B #Southern Cal Edison $850M 10Y +85, $650M 30Y +108
- 01/06 $1.5B #AerCap Aviation $750M 3Y +75, $750M 7Y +98
- 01/06 $1.5B #Williams Cos $1B 10Y +100, $500M 30Y +120
- 01/06 $1.25B #Caterpillar $450M 2Y +25, $350M 2Y SOFR+38, $450M 5Y +42
- 01/06 $1.25B #UBS 3NC2 +60
- 01/06 $1.2B #Jackson National Life $700M 2Y +65, $500M 5Y +95
- 01/06 $1B #India Export-Import Bank 10Y +100
- 01/06 $900M #John Deere Capital 00M $2Y +25, $500M 3Y +35
- 01/06 $800M #Corebridge Funding $500M 3Y +58, 3Y SOFR+75
- 01/06 $750M #Sixth Street Lending 5Y +185
- 01/06 $600M #RGA Global Funding 5Y +85
- 01/06 $500M #Lincoln Financial 5Y +88
- 01/06 $Benchmark Saudi Arabia 3Y +85, 6Y +100, 10Y +110
- 01/06 $500M DBJ WNG 10Y SOFR+78a
- 01/06 $Benchmark Kexim investor calls
- 01/06 $Benchmark World Bank 7Y +57a
COMMODITIES: WTI Crude Slips, Silver & Copper Rally
Jan-06 19:48
- WTI is on track for losses today, ending a recent rally. The market is still weighing up sluggish Chinese demand and the eventual return of OPEC barrels against a weaker USD.
- WTI Feb 25 is down by 0.5% at $73.6/bbl.
- Last week’s rally in WTI futures has exposed key short-term resistance at $76.41, the Oct 8 high. On the downside, key short-term support is seen at $70.78, the 20-day EMA.
- By contrast, silver has risen by 1.1% today to $30.0/oz, bringing the gold silver ratio down to its lowest since Dec19.
- A bear cycle in silver that started Oct 23 remains in play - for now. The metal has recently breached support at $29.642, the Nov 28 low, opening $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement.
- Key resistance has been defined at $32.338, the Dec 12 high.
- Meanwhile, copper has rallied by 1.9% to $415/lb, with the red metal buoyed by reports that Trump could pare back his trade tariff policy, which he later denied.
- A bearish trend condition in copper futures remains intact and the latest recovery appears corrective.
- The cycle low late December confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and has paved the way for an extension towards $400.00 and $388.86, a Fibonacci projection.
- Initial firm resistance is $420.05, the 50-day EMA. Key resistance to watch is at $433.50, the Nov 12 high.
