INDIA: Modi's BJP Seeks To Oust AAP In Delhi Election
Voters in the National Capital Territory of Delhi are currently casting their ballots to decide on the composition of the Legislative Assembly for the coming term. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies in the right-wing National Democratic Alliance are attempting to oust the incumbent centre-left welfarist anti-corruption Aam Aadani Party (AAP) of Chief Minister Atishi after two terms in office.
- Polls close at 1800 local time (0730ET, 1230GMT, 1330CET), with exit polls allowed to be published from 1830 local time (0800ET, 1300GMT, 1400CET). The results will be published on Saturday 8 February.
- The AAP has governed the capital territory since 2013, prior to which the centre-left Indian National Congress (INC) was in control from 1998 onwards. The BJP has not governed Delhi since a single term from 1993 to 1998 following the reintroduction of the chief minister's office.
- In the 2020 election, the AAP bolstered its majority, winning 62 of the 70 seats. However, the arrest of then-Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal in March 2024 on corruption charges regarding changes to alcohol sales policy in the NCT could threaten this position.
- The BJP's strong result in Delhi in the 2024 general election - winning 54% of the vote and all seven of the NCT's Lok Sabha seats - does not necessarily guarantee the BJP success in the state election. Indeed, the BJP has held all of Delhi's parliamentary seats since 2014 indicating a strong preference by voters to split tickets at different governance levels.
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BONDS: Bund/Schatz Swap related trade
Bund/Schatz Swap related trade:
- DUH5 7.95k at 106.73 (suggest Payer).
- RXH5 1.36k at 13.40 (suggest Receiver).
GERMAN DATA: Small Regions Suggest Some Upside Risk For National CPI
December CPI Y/Y prints for Hesse (2.7% vs 2.0% Nov) and Rhineland-Palatinate (3.3% vs 2.7% Nov) clearly accelerated more than consensus expects for the national-level CPI due today (with the median analyst looking for 2.4% Y/Y after 2.2% in Nov). The Hesse M/M print of +0.7% was also notably higher than the national-level consensus of +0.3%.
- This means that there should be some upside risks here, but as Hesse and Rhineland-Palatinate cumulatively only account for 12.6% of the national basket, we can't put too much weight on the apparent beat just yet.
- Also, as the Hesse & R-P statistics agencies both noted some elevated uncertainty with the data on the back of a methodology update, the national agency Destatis might also be less certain on the flash print than usual. Nevertheless, focus lies on that national-level data, scheduled to be released today at 1300GMT/1400CET.
- Final data bringing some more clarity for Hesse and R-P is scheduled for Thursday, alongside releases from a wider set of other states, before the finalised national CPI release on Jan 16.
- Looking at the services prints of the two states already released, developments were mixed - there was some acceleration in Hesse but a lower print than before in Rhineland-Palatinate.
LOOK AHEAD: Monday Data Calendar: Serv/Comp PMIs, Dur/Cap Goods, Tsy 3Y Sale
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 6-Jan 0915 Fed Gov Cook eco-outlook at law and economics conf (text, Q&A)
- 6-Jan 0945 S&P Global US Services PMI (58.5, 58.5)
- 6-Jan 0945 S&P Global US Composite PMI (56.6, --)
- 6-Jan 1000 Factory Orders (0.2%, -0.4%); ex-trans (0.1%, --)
- 6-Jan 1000 Durable Goods Orders (-1.1%, -0.4%); ex-trans (-0.1%, 0.3%)
- 6-Jan 1000 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (0.7%, 0.1%)
- 6-Jan 1000 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (0.5%,0.3%)
- 6-Jan 1130 US Tsy $84B 13W and $72B 26W bill auctions
- 6-Jan 1300 US Tsy $58B 3Y note auction (91282CMF5)
