AUDUSD TECHS: Monitoring Support
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6409 High Feb 21 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.6364 High Mar 6
- PRICE: 0.6298 @ 07:08 GMT Mar 14
- SUP 1: 0.6259/6187 Low Mar 11 / Low Feb 4
- SUP 2: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.6000 Round number support
AUDUSD is holding on to the bulk of this month's gains. A short-term bullish theme remains intact and sights are on the key resistance at 0.6409, the Feb 21 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen a bull cycle. On the downside, a move below 0.6187, the Mar 4 low, is required to reinstate a bear threat. This would open the bear trigger at 0.6088, the Feb 3 low. Clearance of the Feb 3 low would resume the medium-term downtrend.
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EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Gains
- RES 4: 162.70 High Jan 28
- RES 3: 162.49 High Jan 29
- RES 2: 161.09 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 159.93 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 159.12 @ 07:02 GMT Feb 12
- SUP 1: 157.90/155.61 Intraday low / Low Feb 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 155.15 Low Sep 16 ‘24
- SUP 3: 154.42 Low Aug 5 ‘24 and key medium-term support
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
EURJPY is firmer today as the cross extends the rebound from Monday’s low. MA studies are in a bear-mode position and this suggests that the latest recovery is likely a correction. The move higher is allowing a recent oversold condition to unwind. Initial resistance to watch is 159.93, the 20-day EMA. Key short-term resistance is at 161.09, the 50-day EMA, where a break would highlight a stronger reversal. The bear trigger lies at 155.61, the Feb 10 low.
STIR: SFRH5 Lifted
SFRH5 paper paid 95.700 on 6.4K, taken bid over.
GILT TECHS: (H5) Bull Cycle Remains Intact
- RES 4: 95.57 High Dec 11 ‘24
- RES 3: 95.11 High Dec 12 ‘24
- RES 2: 94.75 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 1: 94.35 High Feb 6
- PRICE: 92.92 @ Close Feb 12
- SUP 1: 92.63/91.52 20-day EMA / Low Jan 24
- SUP 2: 91.10 Low Jan 20
- SUP 3: 89.68/88.96 Low Jan 15 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 88.87 2.764 proj of the Dec 20 -27 - Jan 2 price swing
A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains in play for now, and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Last week’s extension has reinforced current conditions. The contract has traded through 93.09, the Dec 20 high, and breached 93.64, the 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg. Sights are on the 94.75, the 76.4% retracement. Initial firm support lies at 92.63, the 20-day EMA.
