EURJPY TECHS: Monitoring Support At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8
- RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
- RES 1: 163.04/164.19 High Apr 3 / High Mar 18 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 161.61 @ 07:26 GMT Apr 4
- SUP 1: 160.82/12 50-day EMA / Low Apr 3
- SUP 2: 160.06 Low Mar 13
- SUP 3: 158.90 Low Mar 10
- SUP 4: 158.39 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 bull cycle
The trend structure in EURJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and recent weakness appears corrective - for now. The pullback has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Pivot support is 160.82, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of the EMA would signal potential for a deeper retracement, towards 160.06 initially, Mar 13 low. For bulls, clearance of 164.19, the Mar 18 high, would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
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LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Events (Times GMT)
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 05-Mar | 0930 | Feb | Services/Composite Final PMI |
| 05-Mar | 1430 | TSC: Bailey/Pill/Taylor/Greene | |
| 05-Mar | 1430 | Greene annual report | |
| 06-Mar | 0930 | Decision Maker Panel data | |
| 06-Mar | 0930 | Feb | Construction PMI |
| 07-Mar | 1500 | BOE's Mann lecture at RBNZ on 'holding anchor' | |
| 10-Mar | 0001 | KPMG/REC Jobs Report | |
| 11-Mar | 0001 | Feb | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 12-Mar | 0001 | RICS House Prices | |
| 12-Mar | 0730 | DMO propose calendar for first 3 weeks of FY25/26 | |
| 14-Mar | 0700 | Jan | Monthly Activity Data |
| 14-Mar | 0730 | DMO calendar for first 3 weeks of FY 25/26 confirmed | |
| 17-Mar | 0001 | Mar | Rightmove House Prices Index |
| 18-Mar | 0930 | Consumer Price inflation weight update | |
| 19-Mar | 0001 | Feb | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 20-Mar | 0700 | Jan/Feb | Labour Market Survey |
| 20-Mar | 1200 | Bank Of England Interest Rate |
EURUSD TECHS: Bullish Impulsive Rally
- RES 4: 1.0825 High Nov 7 2024
- RES 3: 1.0804 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.0728 High Nov 11 2024
- RES 1: 1.0677 50.0% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- PRICE: 1.0639 @ 06:18 GMT Mar 5
- SUP 1: 1.0529 High Feb 26 and a recent breakout level
- SUP 2: 1.0477 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot level
- SUP 3: 1.0360 Low Feb 28
- SUP 4: 1.0317 Low Feb 12
EURUSD traded sharply higher Tuesday to a fresh short-term cycle high. The climb has resulted in a clear breach of key short-term resistance at 1.0533, the Jan 27 high. This marks a continuation of the reversal that started Feb 3 and signals scope for an extension higher near-term. The focus is on 1.0677 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, an initial key short-term support to watch lies at 1.0447, the 50-day EMA.
LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times GMT)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 05-Mar | 745 | FR | Industrial Production |
| 05-Mar | 815 | ES | S&P Global Services/Composite PMI (f) |
| 05-Mar | 845 | IT | S&P Global Services/Composite PMI (f) |
| 05-Mar | 850 | FR | S&P Global Services/Composite PMI (f) |
| 05-Mar | 855 | DE | S&P Global Services/Composite PMI (f) |
| 05-Mar | 900 | IT | GDP (f) |
| 05-Mar | 900 | EU | S&P Global Services/Composite PMI (f) |
| 05-Mar | 1000 | EU | PPI |
| 05-Mar | 1000 | IT | Retail Sales |
| 06-Mar | 830 | EU | S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
| 06-Mar | 1000 | EU | Retail Sales |
| 06-Mar | 1315 | EU | ECB Deposit /Main Refi/ Lending Rate |
| 06-Mar | 1345 | EU | ECB Press conference post Governing council meeting |
| 06-Mar | 1445 | EU | Publication of ECB Staff macroeconomic projections |
| 06-Mar | 1515 | EU | ECB Podcast: Lagarde presents latest MonPol decision |
| 06-Mar | 1515 | EU | Lagarde video message at Women's Forum event |
