US DATA: Mortgage Refis Sensitive To Limited Declines In Mortgage Rates

Bund futures have pierced earlier session highs of 133.26, now +76 today at 133.28. Little in the way of fresh headline flow seen, with NY desks starting to filter in and assess the weekend’s tariff-related developments.

• Next resistance in Bund futures is the Jan 3 high at 133.48
• The German curve continues to bull steepen, with 2-year yields now almost 9bps lower today.
• The BTP/Bund spread has widened 4bps to above 113bps, with the intraday recovery in European equities showing signs of stalling.
• Alongside trade-related headline flow, regional participants continue to await the ECB’s seasonally adjusted January flash inflation data.

OI data points to a mix of net long setting and net short cover in Euribor futures on Friday, with the EUR short-end rallying on the softer-than-expected French and German state-level flash inflation readings. 

• The largest net OI swing was seen in the whites (-26.6k), with more modest moves seen in the rest of the strip.
• Indicative net short cover was observed in H5, M5 and Z5 contracts, with light net long setting seen in U5.