EM CEEMEA CREDIT: MTNSJ: Impact from tariffs, neutral read

France, Spain, Belgium, Finland and Italy are due to sell bills this week. We expect issuance to be E24.1bln in first round operations, down from E26.7bln last week. 

• This afternoon, France will look to sell up to a combined E8.0bln of 13/14/28/50-week BTFs: E2.8-3.2bln of the 13-week Jun 12, 2025 BTF; E0.6-1.0bln of the 14-week Sep 24, 2025 BTF; E1.5-1.9bln of the new 28-week Sep 24, 2025 BTF; E1.5-1.9bln of the 50-week Feb 25, 2026 BTF.
• Tomorrow morning, Spain  will come to the market to sell the 3-month Jun 6, 2025 letras and the 9-month Dec 5, 2025 letras. The size will be announced today.
• Also tomorrow, Belgium will issue a combined E2.4-2.8bln of TCs: An indicative E0.8bln of the 4-month Jul 10, 2025 TC and an indicative E1.8bln of the new 12-month Mar 12, 2026 TC.
• Finally tomorrow, Finland will look to sell up to a combined E2bln of the 8-month Nov 13, 2025 RFTB and the new 11-month Feb 13, 2026 RFTB.
• To conclude issuance for the week on Wednesday, Italy will sell the new 12-month Mar 13, 2026 BOT with E9.0bln on offer.

• RES 4: 5611.50 2.500 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 ‘24 price swing
• RES 3: 5606.00 3.000 proj of the Dec 20 ‘24 - Jan 8 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 5600.00 Round number resistance   
• RES 1: 5575.00 High Mar 3 and the bull trigger             
• PRICE: 5508.00 @ 06:25 GMT Mar 10 
• SUP 1: 5445.11/5373.00 20-day EMA / Low Mar 4              
• SUP 2: 5328.00 Low Feb 106 
• SUP 3: 5306.33 50-day EMA  
• SUP 4: 5112.00 Low Feb 3 and a key support   

The trend in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract is unchanged, it remains bullish with price trading closer to its recent trend highs. Key short-term support has been defined at 5373.00, the Mar 4 low. A reversal lower and a break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose the 50-day EMA at 5306.33. For bulls, a continuation higher would open the 5600.00 handle next.

• RES 4: 0.8530 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg         
• RES 3: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8462 High Jan 24
• RES 1: 0.8419 76.4% retracement of the Jan 20 - Mar 3 bear leg   
• PRICE: 0.8393 @ 06:37 GMT Mar 10 
• SUP 1: 0.8360/8328 Low Mar 6 / 50-day EMA    
• SUP 2: 0.8299/41 Low Mar 5 / 3 and a near-term bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range

A strong rally in EURGBP last week highlights a clear short-term reversal. The cross is trading above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The latest impulsive rally signals scope for an extension towards 0.8419, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 0.8328, the 50-day EMA. Key short-term support is unchanged at 0.8241, the Mar 3 low. For now, a pullback would be considered corrective.