MEXICO: MXNJPY Sinks 2.2%, Approaches Monday Lows

Feb-05 15:37
  • The Mexican peso continues to underperform peers today, ahead of Thursday’s Banxico meeting, with USDMXN up by 0.8% on the session around the 20.70 level. The central bank is widely expected to deliver a larger 50bp interest rate cut tomorrow, despite uncertainty surrounding a potential trade war, which is likely to keep the short-term MXN trajectory volatile.
    • CIBC says that the one-month delay in tariffs against Mexico has significantly increased the odds of a 50bp rate cut this week. They note that Banxico appears less concerned with the inflation path with core CPI already within Banxico’s target range and, most importantly, core services CPI sustaining a downward trend.
    • Earlier, state utility CFE said that it will partner with Pemex to build 3 cogeneration projects at Pemex refineries for $2.1bn. President Sheinbaum said that new CFE projects would add 22.7GW to the grid by 2030.
    • Amid the continued outperformance of JPY today, meanwhile, MXNJPY has fallen by over 2%, bringing the pair back towards 7.35 and narrowing the gap to Monday’s 2-month lows around 7.30.

Historical bullets

US TSY FUTURES: Curves Extend Bear Steepener Move

Jan-06 15:34
  • Tsy curves climbing to new multi-year highs with bonds extending lows (USH5 -23 at 112-26, 30Y yield +.0413 at 4.8523%), 2s10s taps 35.520 - highest since May 2022, 5s30s +1.306 at 41.043.
  • Heavy volumes in TYH5, over 935,000 so far amid heavy rate lock selling with over 20 corporate debt issuers expected today, not to mention Tsy supply: $84B 13W and $72B 26W bill auctions and $58B 3Y note auction (91282CMF5).

BOBL: Block trade

Jan-06 15:18

Bobl Block trade, suggest seller:

  • OEH5 8.5k at 117.16.

EQUITIES: Huge Stoxx600 Option

Jan-06 15:12
  • SXXP (21st March) 500p, trades for 6.8 and 6.7 inb 56.5k.
  • SXXP (20th June) 500p, trades for 14.5 in 26.8k.