NATGAS: Natural Gas End of Day: Henry Hub Reverses Previous Day’s Gains

Dec-13 18:10

Henry Hub has extended its losses on the day to completely reverse yesterday’s storage withdrawal related gains. Rising temperatures and lower residential demand are adding pressure.

  • US Natgas JAN 25 down 5.2% at 3.27$/mmbtu
  • US Natgas FEB 25 down 3.5% at 3.09$/mmbtu
  • EBW Analytics sees possibility of 19 Bcf/d demand loss next week though Christmas week looks colder. Jan gas down 3.1% at $3.35/mmBtu.
  • The EIA weekly gas inventories showed a larger than expected withdrawal for the week ending Dec. 6 at 190bcf.
  • US natural gas storage likely saw an above-average draw of 119 bcf in the week to Dedc. 13, according to a Reuters survey.
  • US LNG export terminal feedgas supply is estimated near the highest since January at 14.32bcf/d today, BNEF said.
  • Lower 48 natural gas demand edges lower to 106.3bcf/d today but remain above normal, according to Bloomberg.
  • The NOAA forecast has cooled slightly with above normal still in the west but near normal spreading further from the west in the 6–10-day period. The 8–14-day forecast shows below normal on the East Coast.
  • The number of US LNG export cargoes rose to 27 in the week to Dec. 11 from 26 the week prior, according to the EIA.
  • The Russian envoy to Austria said OMV’s decision to terminate a gas supply deal with Russia's Gazprom will have consequences, according to Reuters citing RIA news agency.
  • Plaquemines LNG was on track to pull enough feedgas Dec. 13 to produce its first LNG cargo, according to Reuters.
  • Korea Gas’ LNG sales in November fell 13.9% from a year earlier, which marks the sharpest decline in a year due to weak demand for heating and power production, Platts said.

Historical bullets

EURUSD TECHS: Heading South

Nov-13 18:00
  • RES 4: 1.0997 High Oct 8   
  • RES 3: 1.0937 High Nov 5 and key short-term resistance  
  • RES 2: 1.0761/0811 Low Oct 23 / 20-day EMA
  • RES 1: 1.0683 Low Nov 6     
  • PRICE: 1.0571 @ 16:15 GMT Nov 13
  • SUP 1: 1.0556 Low Nov 13
  • SUP 2: 1.0517 Low Nov 1 2023
  • SUP 3: 1.0484 1.00 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing  
  • SUP 4: 1.0448 Low Sep 3 2023 and a key support     

EURUSD remains in a clear downtrend and this week’s extension reinforces the current trend condition. The pair has traded lower again, Wednesday. This confirms a resumption of the bear trend and, note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 1.0517 support, the Nov 1 ‘23 low. Initial firm resistance is 1.0811, the 20-day EMA.      

LOOK AHEAD: Thursday Data Calendar: Weekly Claims, PPI, Chair Powell Eco-Outlook

Nov-13 17:55
  • US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
  • Nov-14 0700 Fed Gov Kugler moderated mon-pol discussion in Uruguay
  • Nov-14 0830 Initial Jobless Claims (221k, 220k)
  • Nov-14 0830 Continuing Claims (1.892M, 1.873M)
  • Nov-14 0830 PPI Final Demand MoM (0.0%, 0.2%); YoY (1.8%, 2.3%)
  • Nov-14 0830 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (0.2%, 0.2%); YoY (2.8%, 3.0%)
  • Nov-14 0830 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM (0.1%, 0.2%); YoY (3.2%, --)
  • Nov-14 0900 Richmond Fed Barkin fireside chat on economy (no text, Q&A)
  • Nov-14 1130 US Tsy $95B 4W, $90B 8W bill auctions
  • Nov-14 1500 Fed Chair Powell economic outlook from Dallas Fed  (text, Q&A) 
  • Nov-14 1645 NY Fed Williams on markets (text, no Q&A)

OPTIONS: Upside In Euribor Features Wednesday

Nov-13 17:52

Wednesday's Europe rates/bond options flow included:

  • ERH5 97.87/98.12/98.37c fly, bought for 4.5 in 21k (ref 97.765, 12del).
  • ERM5 98.25/98.50cs vs 97.50p, bought the cs for half in 26.9k
  • SFIZ4 95.45/95.55cs vs 95.30p, sold the cs at 0 in 7.5k.