NATGAS: Natural Gas End of Day Summary: Henry Hub Extends Rally
Henry Hub extended its recent rally, supported by record LNG export terminal feedgas flows. Meanwhile, current domestic demand has risen further above normal amid forecasts of above normal temperatures.
- US Natgas MAR 25 up 2.3% at 3.52$/mmbtu
- US Natgas APR 25 up 2.1% at 3.53$/mmbtu
- US Henry Hub spot prices for 2025 have been raised by 20.7% to $3.79/MMBtu, according to the EIA in its February Short Term Energy Outlook.
- US dry natural gas production across 2025 has been revised up 0.1 bcf/d to 104.6 bcf/d, the EIA said.
- US LNG export terminal feedgas has risen to a new record high of 15.22bcf/d today, Bloomberg shows.
- Lower 48 natural gas demand has risen back above the previous five-year seasonal range to 113.0bcf/d, according to Bloomberg.
- The NOAA 6–14-day forecast shows below normal temperatures are expected in central and eastern areas of the US although it is showing warmer on the west coast.
- US domestic natural gas production was yesterday at 107.6bcf/d, Bloomberg shows.
- Export flows to Mexico are today estimated up to 6.48bcf/d, according to Bloomberg.
- In the US Northeast, regional hubs are largely pricing higher on the day, according to NGI prices. Total demand is seen down, but domestic production and inflows from Canada are also lower.
- The Waha gas hub in Texas is up by 45 cents/MMBtu today, according to NGI.
- In California, SoCal City Gate is up around 9.5 cents/MMBtu, while PG&E City Gate is up 5.5 cents/MMBtu, according to NGI.
- Supply fears stoking the recent rally in European natural gas prices are unjustified, but the sentiment is so strong that it’s unlikely to ease before the cold season ends, BNP said, cited by Bloomberg.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
EURGBP TECHS: Resistance Cleared
- RES 4: 0.8471 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg
- RES 3: 0.8448 High Oct 31 and reversal trigger
- RES 2: 0.8424 50.0% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg
- RES 1: 0.8407 High Jan 9
- PRICE: 0.8386 @ 19:28 GMT Jan 10
- SUP 1: 0.8315/8284 50-day EMA / Low Jan 8
- SUP 2: 0.8263 Low Dec 31
- SUP 3: 0.8223 Low Dec 19
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
EURGBP traded sharply higher last week. The cross has breached resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 0.8311, and cleared the December highs. This undermines the recent bearish theme and suggests scope for a stronger short-term recovery. Note too that 0.8376, the Nov 19 high and a key resistance, has also been cleared. This opens 0.8424, a Fibonacci retracement. Support at the 50-day EMA is at 0.8315.
GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Trend Sequence
- RES 4: 1.2672 50-day EMA
- RES 3: 1.2607 High Dec 30
- RES 2: 1.2533/2576 20-day EMA / High Jan 7
- RES 1: 1.2367 High Jan 9
- PRICE: 1.2208 @ 19:13 GMT Jan 10
- SUP 1: 1.2187 Low Nov 10 2023
- SUP 2: 1.2138 Low Nov 2 ‘23
- SUP 3: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.2037 Low Oct 4 ‘23 and a key support
The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and last week’s sell-off reinforces the bear trend - the break lower confirms a resumption of the downtrend. The move down also marks an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant bear trend. Sights are on 1.2187 next, the Nov 10 2023 low. Initial resistance is at 1.2367, the Jan 9 high.
EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Trend Sequence
- RES 4: 1.0630 High Dec 06
- RES 3: 1.0513 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.0437/58 High Jan 6 / High Dec 30
- RES 1: 1.0358 High Jan 8
- PRICE: 1.0239 @ 18:56 GMT Jan 10
- SUP 1: 1.0215 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 1.0201 61.8% of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull leg
- SUP 3: 1.0151 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
The trend condition in EURUSD remains bearish and recent short-term gains have proved to be a correction. Friday’s move lower resulted in a print below 1.0226, the Jan 2 low. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and mark an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.0201 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. Resistance to watch is 1.0458, the Dec 30 high.
