NATGAS: Natural Gas End of Day Summary: Henry Hub Falls
Apr-14 18:16
Henry Hub is losing ground today as warming spring weather squeezes heating demand. Meanwhile, production is steady, while Mexports and LNG feedgas maintain strength.
- US Natgas MAY 25 down 4.4% at 3.37$/mmbtu
- US Natgas JUN 25 down 3.7% at 3.52$/mmbtu
- Lower 48 natural gas demand is up 0.27 bcf/d to 69.7 bcf/d, Bloomberg said.
- NOAA average lower 48 temperatures 6–10-day forecast goes warmer east of the Rockies and much above normal in the South Central.
- US LNG export terminal feedgas is down 0.05 bcf/d to 16.2 bcf/d, Bloomberg said.
- US domestic natural gas production is down 0.97 bcf/d to 106.9 bcf/d, Bloomberg said.
- EIA forecasts natural gas production in the Eagle Ford will increase 200 mmcf/d y/y in 2026 to 7 bcf/d.
- Energy Transfer asked federal regulators to extend the deadline to construct the 16.5m mtpa Lake Charles LNG facility by three years, Reuters reported.
- North Asia’s LNG prices are expected to remain stable during April 14-18, Platts said.
- The Icthys LNG export plant in Australia has delayed scheduled shipments after an unplanned outage earlier this month curbed production, Bloomberg reported.
- Brunei LNG is managing an “operational upset” that occurred at the facility the morning of April 11, Bloomberg reported.
- The European Parliament is proposing to reduce the EU’s gas storage target to 83% ahead of winter,
- The European share of global LNG increased to 33% in Q1 2025 from 28% in Q1 2024; Asia’s share fell from 52% to 47%: ICIS.
- Six companies—Total, BP, Vitol, Glencore, Trafigura, and DXT Commodities—competed in Argentina’s latest LNG buy tender, Platts said.
- Italy’s ENI and Argentina’s YPF have signed an MoU to evaluate ENI’s participation in the Argentina LNG project: Bloomberg.
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FED: March Economic Projections: Higher Inflation, Weaker Growth, Same Rates
Mar-14 21:28
The MNI Markets Team’s expectations for the updated Economic Projections in the March SEP are below.
- The unemployment rate is likely to rise slightly for 2025 alongside a downgrade in GDP growth, while the 2025 core and headline PCE inflation projections are set to rise again. Changes to later years will likely be limited, however.
- More detail on the shift in Fed funds rate medians is in our meeting preview - we will add more color next week.
FED: Market Pricing Nearly 3 2025 Cuts As Conditions Tighten
Mar-14 21:25
Amid rising government policy uncertainty, sentiment among businesses and consumers has fallen sharply since the start of the year, while equities and the dollar have reversed their post-election rise. Overall, financial conditions have tightened, even if stress is not yet mounting, e.g. no major widening of credit spreads (the accompanying chart shows the Fed’s financial conditions impulse index but only through January).
- Combined with growth fears, this has affected expectations for the Fed’s rate path, with around 18bp more cuts expected in 2025 compared with what was seen after the January FOMC. 65bp of cuts are priced for the year as a whole. 2025 cut pricing reached 71bp before the February inflation data and 76bp before the February payrolls report.
- A rate cut is seen with near zero probability for March’s meeting, but the first full cut is just about priced for June, with a second nearly priced by September.
- Chair Powell has no reason to endorse or refute these expectations – he’s likely to be happy with a press conference that ends with little discernable change in pricing.
CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
Mar-14 21:17
- CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
