NATGAS: Natural Gas End of Day Summary: Henry Hub Lowest Since Dec. 18

Labor Market: The description of employment ("flat or up only slightly across Districts") was little changed from October's subdued description (which read "increased slightly ... with more than half of the Districts reporting slight or modest growth and the remaining Districts reporting little or no change") and about the same as September's "Employment levels were generally flat to up slightly in recent weeks. Five Districts saw slight or modest increases in overall headcounts".) Districts continued to point to low labor market turnover, and noted softening wage growth.

• November: "Employment levels were flat or up only slightly across Districts. Hiring activity was subdued as worker turnover remained low and few firms reported increasing their headcount. The level of layoffs was also reportedly low. Contacts indicated they expected employment to remain steady or rise slightly over the next year, but many were cautious in their optimism about any pickup in hiring activity. Wage growth softened to a modest pace across most Districts, as did expectations for wage growth in coming months. Job growth and wage growth for entry-level positions and skilled trades were an exception, rising robustly and expected to grow further through next year."

Inflation: Prices were described as rising "only at a modest pace", with businesses expressing continued difficulty in passing along price increases to customers. Notably there was some concern about tariffs posing a "significant upside risk to inflation". (October's description: "Inflation continued to moderate with selling prices reportedly increasing at a slight or modest pace in most Districts."; September: "On balance, prices increased modestly in the most recent reporting period. However, three Districts reported only slight increases in selling prices.") 

• November:  "Prices rose only at a modest pace across Federal Reserve Districts. Both consumer-oriented and business-oriented contacts reported greater difficulty passing costs on to customers. Input prices were said to be rising faster than selling prices for most businesses, resulting in declining profit margins. Although input prices rose generally, contacts in several Districts noted declines in certain raw materials and non-labor costs. In contrast, rising insurance prices were again reported widely as significant costs pressures for many businesses. Contacts indicated they expect the current pace of price growth to persist, but businesses in several Districts indicated tariffs pose a significant upside risk to inflation."

NPR reports that  US President-elect Trump, “got very close to a majority of the vote in this presidential election, but not quite... this year's popular-vote margin is the second-closest since 1968 and still tightening...”

• AP: “With 96% of the vote in, Trump has 49.97% to Vice President Harris' 48.36%, or 76.9 million votes to 74.4 million.”
• After Democrat Adam Gray defeated incumbent Republican Rep. John Duarte (R-CA) in the final House race of the cycle, the GOP will hold a 220-215 majority, which will shrink to 217-215 if Rep Elise Stefanik (R-NY) is confirmed as Trump’s UN Ambassador in January.
• The final balance of power means that House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) will effectively operate a zero-seat buffer to pass legislation until at least April, a far more fragile majority than the four-seat margin that has ground the chamber to a halt for much of this Congress. If any Republican fails to show up for a vote, the GOP will lose their majority.
• Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) has set special elections for April 1 to fill the seats vacated by former Rep Matt Gaetz, who failed in a bid for Trump’s Attorney General, and Mike Waltz, who will become Trump’s National Security Advisor.

Figure 1: National Popular Vote Since 2000

Source: NPR