Henry Hub is extending its earlier losses following EIA data showing a slightly below expectation stock withdrawal, heading for its lowest since Dec. 18. Forecasts for milder weather than expected is also adding pressure.
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Labor Market: The description of employment ("flat or up only slightly across Districts") was little changed from October's subdued description (which read "increased slightly ... with more than half of the Districts reporting slight or modest growth and the remaining Districts reporting little or no change") and about the same as September's "Employment levels were generally flat to up slightly in recent weeks. Five Districts saw slight or modest increases in overall headcounts".) Districts continued to point to low labor market turnover, and noted softening wage growth.
Inflation: Prices were described as rising "only at a modest pace", with businesses expressing continued difficulty in passing along price increases to customers. Notably there was some concern about tariffs posing a "significant upside risk to inflation". (October's description: "Inflation continued to moderate with selling prices reportedly increasing at a slight or modest pace in most Districts."; September: "On balance, prices increased modestly in the most recent reporting period. However, three Districts reported only slight increases in selling prices.")
NPR reports that US President-elect Trump, “got very close to a majority of the vote in this presidential election, but not quite... this year's popular-vote margin is the second-closest since 1968 and still tightening...”
Figure 1: National Popular Vote Since 2000
Source: NPR