NATGAS: Natural Gas End of Day Summary: Henry Hub Rallies
Henry Hub has rallied today supported by the forecast of a return of cooler weather across the US during the second week of February and the erosion of the storage surplus over the five-year average.
- US Natgas MAR 25 up 10.4% at 3.36$/mmbtu
- US Natgas APR 25 up 8.9% at 3.34$/mmbtu
- US natural gas storage likely saw an average draw of 172 bcf in the week to Jan. 31, according to a Reuters survey.
- The erosion of the storage surplus is also supporting prices, expected to fall to 4.3% below the five-year average this week, according to a Reuters survey.
- Lower 48 natural gas demand continues the recent decline back to 90.8bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg.
- Average Lower 48 temperatures are forecasts above normal this week but falling below normal in the second week of the outlook.
- US heating demand for the week ending Feb. 8 is forecast to be 52 HDD below the long-term normal, Bloomberg said, citing the NOAA.
- US domestic natural gas production is estimated at 106.5bcf/d today, Bloomberg said.
- US LNG export terminal feedgas is showing at 14.74bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg.
- Export flows to Mexico has fallen from over 6.6bccf/d last week back to 6.08bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg.
- Trump’s 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and 10% carve-out for Canadian energy imports will have little impact on natural gas shipments given US capacity can meet demand even as winter draws peak, Bloomberg said.
- The launch of China’s DeepSeek AI challenges the belief that AI-related power demand will drive a significant rise in US gas-fired power generation, Platts said.
- Three cargoes for March-April from Oman LNG are offered for sale, sources told Bloomberg.
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JGB TECHS: (H5) Returns Lower
- RES 3: 149.55 - High Mar 22 (cont)
- RES 2: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 1: 144.48/146.53 - High Nov 11 / High Aug 6
- PRICE: 142.12 @ 15:01 GMT Jan 03
- SUP 1: 141.65 - Low Dec 30
- SUP 2: 141.56 - 1.764 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
- SUP 3: 141.05 - 2.000 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
Markets slipped on the hawkish Fed and are yet to fully recover, touching 141.65 on the way lower. Medium-term trend signals on the continuation chart continue to point south. A resumption of the trend would pave the way for a move towards 141.56, a Fibonacci projection point on the continuation chart. A stronger recovery would open 144.48, the Nov 11 high. Further out, key resistance is at 146.53, the Aug 6 high (cont).
USDCAD TECHS: Bull Flag Highlights A Clear Uptrend
- RES 4: 1.4669 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4392 @ 15:50 GMT Jan 3
- SUP 1: 1.4336 Low Dec 20
- SUP 2: 1.4307/4232 20-day EMA / Low Dec 17
- SUP 3: 1.4136 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5
USDCAD is unchanged and bulls remain in the driver’s seat. The latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4307, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
AUDUSD TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 0.6471 High Dec 9
- RES 3: 0.6408 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6341 High Dec 18
- RES 1: 0.6247/6282 High Dec 30 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6204 @ 15:21 GMT Jan 3
- SUP 1: 0.6179 Low Dec 31
- SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
A bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair continues to trade closer to latest lows. Recent weakness maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 0.6282, the 20-day EMA.
