NATGAS: Natural Gas End of Day Summary: Henry Hub Ticks Up
Henry Hub front month has shown a continued upwards trajectory today. Demand is switching to CDDs, and this is the beginning of the switch to cooling demand.
- US Natgas JUN 25 up 0.7% at 3.37$/mmbtu
- US Natgas JUL 25 up 1.5% at 3.66$/mmbtu
- Lower 48 natural gas demand is starting today up 1.16 mmcf/d to 65.7 bcf/d, and 5 bcf/d below the 30day average of 70.67 bcf/d.
- The GFS 6z 15day showing an increase of 32 HDDs with a decrease 12 CDDs nationally. This is most profound in the East adding 20 TDDs (+32 HDDs, -12 CDDs).
- US LNG export terminal feedgas is up 132 mmcf/d to 15.8 bcf/d, according to BNEF.
- US domestic natural gas production is down 285 mmcf/d to 105.6 bcf/d, according to BNEF.
- Henry Hub is expected to surge by 51% on the year in 2025 to $3.3/MMBtu, before rising by around 3% on the year in 2026 to $3.4/MMBtu, according to the World Bank.
- The World Bank expects that the rises in natgas supply are likely to outstrip demand growth in 2025, but supply increases will fall behind those of consumption again in 2026.
- Woodside Energy made a final investment decision to develop the three-train 16.5m mtpa Louisiana LNG.
- Malaysia’s Petronas is in talks with Commonwealth LNG to buy at least 1mtpa of LNG from the 9.5mtpa Cameron facility, Louisiana, according to Reuters sources
- Indonesia faces a growing natural gas supply shortfall from 2025 -2035, driven by rising domestic demand and declining production from aging fields, according to PGN’s President.
- LNG Alliance, planning the Amigo LNG project in Sonora, Mexico, finalised a sales and purchase agreement to supply OQ trading, Bloomberg said.
- JPMorgan expects end-of-summer European gas storage to reach 90%.
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USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 1.4700 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.4402 High Mar 20
- PRICE: 1.4292 @ 16:50 GMT Mar 28
- SUP 1: 1.4235 Low Mar 26 and a key near-term support
- SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
USDCAD traded through support at 1.4242 on Wednesday but has recovered. A return lower and clearance of this level would undermine the bull theme and instead highlight potential for a test of 1.4151, the Feb 14 low and a bear trigger. Moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. A reversal higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 1.4543, the Mar 4 high. First resistance is 1.4402, the Mar 20 high.
US FISCAL: Debt Limit "Extraordinary Measures" Pick Up, But Cash Dipping Pre-Tax
Treasury data shows that there were $207B of "extraordinary measures" available to circumvent hitting the debt limit as of Wednesday Mar 26.
- That's the most since Jan 27th and up from $163B a week earlier, from a total $376B available.
- However, Treasury cash in the TGA fell to $316B as of the 26th (and was down to $280B on Thursday), meaning there were a combined $523B of resources available to avert the debt limit, the lowest since the impasse began in January (and half of the starting amount of just over $1T).
- The next couple of weeks will be very important for Treasury, as they represent the biggest tax take of the year. The Congressional Budget Office reported this week that per its estimates "if the debt limit [$36.1T] remains unchanged, the government's ability to borrow using extraordinary measures will probably be exhausted in August or September 2025." Treasury wrote to Congress this month that they would be able to provide an update on the x-date in the first half of May, after the conclusion of tax season.
AUDUSD TECHS: Remains Above Support
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6409 High Feb 21 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.6391 High Mar 17 / 18
- PRICE: 0.6291 @ 16:46 GMT Mar 28
- SUP 1: 0.6258 Low Mar 21
- SUP 2: 0.6187 Low Feb 4
- SUP 3: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
AUDUSD is unchanged. A short-term bull theme is intact and the latest move down appears corrective. Key short-term support to watch is 0.6187, the Mar 4 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bear threat. First support is at 0.6258, the Mar 21 low. A stronger recovery would refocus attention on 0.6409, the Feb 21 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen the bull cycle and resume the uptrend that started Feb 3.
