POLAND: NBP Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged, Focus Turns To Presser
Feb-06 08:25
- The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left the reference rate unchanged at 5.75% in a well-telegraphed, widely anticipated decision, accompanied by a statement that was almost a carbon copy of previous communique. Adjustments to the statement were minor and mostly related to recent high-frequency data, alongside an addition of a sentence acknowledging the possibility of spillover from global trade disruptions. The focus turns to the press conference with Governor Adam Glapinski, which will begin in Warsaw at 14:00GMT/15:00CET. Market participants will be on the lookout for signs of a shift in the Governor's hawkish stance, although most do not expect any major changes.
- President Andrzej Duda said that Poles should take it to the streets if the government annuls this year's presidential election like it happened in Romania last year, when far-right Calin Georgescu won the first round. Duda told YouTube-based Kanal Zero that the European Commission interfered in the Romanian election and in Polish politics, and asked rhetorically whether elections today can "only be won by those approved by Brussels." Duda said that he would not participate in the election campaign, but his views were closest to Karol Nawrocki's, "even if we don't always see eye to eye about everything".
- Another opinion poll (this time by Opinia24 for Radio ZET) showed that Civic Coalition's presidential candidate Rafal Trzaskowski has been widening the gap with his closest rival Law and Justice's Karol Nawrocki. The recent gains for Trzaskowski come amid a perceived tilt in his rhetoric to the right, although the implications for the run-off are less clear.
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GILTS: Flat Start, Long End Supply Due
Jan-07 08:20
Little net movement in gilts as softer-than-expected French CPI counters earlier selling in Bunds.
- Futures +10 at 92.05,
- Bearish technicals intact in the contract.
- Initial support at the Dec 19 low/bear trigger (91.64), while initial resistance is located at the Jan 2 high (92.88).
- Yields little changed across the curve to start.
- Gilt/Bund 10-Year yield spread flat at 216bp.
- SONIA futures 0.5-1.5bp higher on the day with wider bonds off lows and BoE-dated OIS showing 57bp of cuts through ’25 vs. 56bp early today.
- DMO issuance for calendar ’25 gets underway this morning, via GBP2.25bln of the 4.375% Jul-54 gilt.
BONDS: Bobl/Bund Block trade
Jan-07 08:13
Bobl/Bund block trade suggest a steepener, perfectly weighted.
- RXH5 ~2.35k sold at 132.40.
- OEH5 ~4.95k bought for 117.25.
SILVER TECHS: MA Studies Highlight A Dominant Downtrend
Jan-07 08:09
- RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $33.125 - High Nov 1
- RES 2: $32.338 - High Dec 12 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $30.507 - 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $30.184 @ 08:07 GMT Jan 7
- SUP 1: $28.748 - Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
A bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 remains in play - for now - and recent gains are considered corrective. The metal has recently breached support at $29.642, the Nov 28 low. The break lower opens $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance has been defined at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. A break of this level would signal a reversal.
