POLAND: NBP Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged, Focus Turns To Presser

Little net movement in gilts as softer-than-expected French CPI counters earlier selling in Bunds.

• Futures +10 at 92.05,
• Bearish technicals intact in the contract.
• Initial support at the Dec 19 low/bear trigger (91.64), while initial resistance is located at the Jan 2 high (92.88).
• Yields little changed across the curve to start.
• Gilt/Bund 10-Year yield spread flat at 216bp.
• SONIA futures 0.5-1.5bp higher on the day with wider bonds off lows and BoE-dated OIS showing 57bp of cuts through ’25 vs. 56bp early today.
• DMO issuance for calendar ’25 gets underway this morning, via GBP2.25bln of the 4.375% Jul-54 gilt.

Bobl/Bund block trade suggest a steepener, perfectly weighted.

• RXH5 ~2.35k sold at 132.40.
• OEH5 ~4.95k bought for 117.25.

• RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger  
• RES 3: $33.125 - High Nov 1 
• RES 2: $32.338 - High Dec 12 and a key resistance  
• RES 1: $30.507 - 50-day EMA                             
• PRICE: $30.184 @ 08:07 GMT Jan 7  
• SUP 1: $28.748 - Low Dec 19        
• SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle 
• SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 
• SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8  

A bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 remains in play - for now - and recent gains are considered corrective. The metal has recently breached support at $29.642, the Nov 28 low. The break lower opens $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance has been defined at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. A break of this level would signal a reversal.