POLAND: NBP Rate Cuts Draw Nearer, All Presidential Candidates To Attend Debate
- NBP Governor Glapinski's speech, delivered to commemorate the millennial anniversary of the coronation of the first Polish king and published in Obserwator Finansowy on April 18, got some broader airing. The Governor used the speech to praise the benefits of having own currency, but also noted that 'in the near future there will be room for a reduction in interest rates, which we have all been eagerly awaiting for many months.' The number of policymakers signalling their willingness to support an interest-rate reduction at the May 6-7 meeting has been growing over the past few weeks, supporting dovish market bets. The only major macroeconomic publication before the rate meeting is flash April CPI on Wednesday, which is widely expected to show a decline from a local maximum of +4.9% Y/Y, where headline inflation stayed through 1Q2025.
- All 13 presidential candidates will face off in a debate for the first time in this election campaign. The debate hosted by Superexpress will start at 17:00BST/18:00CEST. The event could be an opportunity for front-runner Rafal Trzaskowski to regain poise after recent setbacks, which have seen his advantage over runner-up Karol Nawrocki narrow - but given his current position, he will stay under fire from both his political adversaries and allies. Sources from the Law and Justice (PiS) party which is behind Nawrocki's bid told Fakt that their candidate's decent performance at a previous debate, signs of mobilisation within their electorate, and yesterday's declaration of support from President Andrzej Duda have boosted their confidence in Nawrocki's chances to mount a challenge to Trzaskowski. Meanwhile, Money.pl reported that ruling coalition leaders agreed to refrain from publicly sparring over abortion, civil unions, national insurance and hospital reforms during this election campaign.
- US Energy Secretary Chris Wright meets with Polish leaders on the sidelines of the Three Seas Initiative Summit in Warsaw. He will speak with Prime Minister Donald Tusk at 09:00BST/10:00CEST.
- The Finance Ministry is looking to sell PLN6bn-10bn worth of OK0127, WZ0330, PS0730, DS0432, DS1034 and WS0447 bonds at an auction today.
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USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 1.4700 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.4402 High Mar 20
- PRICE: 1.4292 @ 16:50 GMT Mar 28
- SUP 1: 1.4235 Low Mar 26 and a key near-term support
- SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
USDCAD traded through support at 1.4242 on Wednesday but has recovered. A return lower and clearance of this level would undermine the bull theme and instead highlight potential for a test of 1.4151, the Feb 14 low and a bear trigger. Moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. A reversal higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 1.4543, the Mar 4 high. First resistance is 1.4402, the Mar 20 high.
US FISCAL: Debt Limit "Extraordinary Measures" Pick Up, But Cash Dipping Pre-Tax
Treasury data shows that there were $207B of "extraordinary measures" available to circumvent hitting the debt limit as of Wednesday Mar 26.
- That's the most since Jan 27th and up from $163B a week earlier, from a total $376B available.
- However, Treasury cash in the TGA fell to $316B as of the 26th (and was down to $280B on Thursday), meaning there were a combined $523B of resources available to avert the debt limit, the lowest since the impasse began in January (and half of the starting amount of just over $1T).
- The next couple of weeks will be very important for Treasury, as they represent the biggest tax take of the year. The Congressional Budget Office reported this week that per its estimates "if the debt limit [$36.1T] remains unchanged, the government's ability to borrow using extraordinary measures will probably be exhausted in August or September 2025." Treasury wrote to Congress this month that they would be able to provide an update on the x-date in the first half of May, after the conclusion of tax season.
AUDUSD TECHS: Remains Above Support
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6409 High Feb 21 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.6391 High Mar 17 / 18
- PRICE: 0.6291 @ 16:46 GMT Mar 28
- SUP 1: 0.6258 Low Mar 21
- SUP 2: 0.6187 Low Feb 4
- SUP 3: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
AUDUSD is unchanged. A short-term bull theme is intact and the latest move down appears corrective. Key short-term support to watch is 0.6187, the Mar 4 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bear threat. First support is at 0.6258, the Mar 21 low. A stronger recovery would refocus attention on 0.6409, the Feb 21 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen the bull cycle and resume the uptrend that started Feb 3.
