POLAND: NBP To Leave Rates Unchanged, Updated Forecasts In Focus

• RES 4: 1.5000 Psychological round number 
• RES 3: 1.4948 High Mar 2003  
• RES 2: 1.4814 High Apr 2003
• RES 1: 1.4600/1.4793 Round number resistance / High Feb 3    
• PRICE: 1.4345 @ 08:01 GMT Feb 10  
• SUP 1: 1.4270 Low Feb 5
• SUP 2: 1.4261 Low Jan 20 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.4178 High Nov 6 ‘24
• SUP 4: 1.4120 Low Dec 11

USDCAD is trading close to last week’s lows. For now, the latest move down appears corrective and the primary uptrend remains intact. The Feb 3 cycle high reinforces and strengthens bullish conditions. The break higher confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and opens 1.4814 next, the Apr 2003 high. Key support to watch lies at 1.4261, the Jan 20 low. A clear breach of this level would alter the picture and signal a reversal. 

• RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 
• RES 3: 0.6384 High Dec 13               
• RES 2: 0.6331 High Jan 24 and a key resistance   
• RES 1: 0.6302 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6273 @ 07:57 GMT Feb 10 
• SUP 1: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3
• SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.6000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 0.5931 1.764 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

AUDUSD is trading closer to its recent highs. Despite the latest bounce, the trend structure is unchanged and remains bearish. The Feb 3 fresh cycle low confirmed a continuation of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. A resumption of the bear leg would open 0.6045, a Fibonacci projection. Key resistance is at 0.6302, the 50-day EMA, and 0.6331, the Jan 24 high. A clear break of both levels would be bullish.

Although the household consumption indicator fell 0.3% M/M in December, 3m/3m growth ended 2024 at 1.0% (vs 1.2% in November). This suggests consumption will be a positive contributor to Q4 GDP (Flash 0.2% Q/Q, Riksbank 0.4%). The final Q4 GDP print is due Feb 28. This will be an important release, because the monthly and quarterly flash statistics are often unreliable and revision-prone. 

• Private sector production rose 1.0% M/M in December, corresponding to a 3.0% Y/Y (vs 2.5% prior). This was the joint-highest annual reading since October 2022.
• This reflected sequential increases in industry (5.7% M/M, 9.0% Y/Y) and construction (1.4% M/M, 3.4% Y/Y) production, while services production eased a touch (-0.2% M/M, 1.6% Y/Y).