POLAND: NBP To Leave Rates Unchanged, Updated Forecasts In Focus
- The National Bank of Poland (NBP) is poised to stand pat on interest rates today, even as the market expects a resumption of rate cuts at some point later this year, most likely in 2H2025. Today's decision will be informed by an updated macroeconomic projection, with its key parameters set to be included in the statement from the meeting. Governor Adam Glapinski will discuss the outlook in more detail at his press conference tomorrow. See our preview of the meeting here.
- Polish Defence Ministry declared that it was ready to immediately resume the deliveries of US military equipment to Ukraine through the logistical hub near the city of Rzeszow, after the White House pledged to unlock the flow of aid as a result of yesterday's talks in Saudi Arabia. Earlier reports suggested that US materiel flown into Poland was being diverted to and stockpiled in a nearby military base hosting US troops instead of making its way to the Ukrainian frontlines.
- Money.pl reported that the Ministry of Digital Affairs continues works on the so-called digital tax which would be imposed on big tech companies doing business in Poland, despite retaliation threats made by the incoming US ambassador and signals of scepticism from the Ministry of Finance. The Ministry of Digital Affairs is reportedly planning to finalise draft legislation within 3-4 months and estimates potential revenue from the proposed tax at around PLN3-4bn.
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USDCAD TECHS: Monitoring Support
- RES 4: 1.5000 Psychological round number
- RES 3: 1.4948 High Mar 2003
- RES 2: 1.4814 High Apr 2003
- RES 1: 1.4600/1.4793 Round number resistance / High Feb 3
- PRICE: 1.4345 @ 08:01 GMT Feb 10
- SUP 1: 1.4270 Low Feb 5
- SUP 2: 1.4261 Low Jan 20 and a key support
- SUP 3: 1.4178 High Nov 6 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.4120 Low Dec 11
USDCAD is trading close to last week’s lows. For now, the latest move down appears corrective and the primary uptrend remains intact. The Feb 3 cycle high reinforces and strengthens bullish conditions. The break higher confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and opens 1.4814 next, the Apr 2003 high. Key support to watch lies at 1.4261, the Jan 20 low. A clear breach of this level would alter the picture and signal a reversal.
AUDUSD TECHS: Resistance Stays Intact For Now
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 0.6384 High Dec 13
- RES 2: 0.6331 High Jan 24 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 0.6302 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6273 @ 07:57 GMT Feb 10
- SUP 1: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3
- SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6000 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.5931 1.764 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
AUDUSD is trading closer to its recent highs. Despite the latest bounce, the trend structure is unchanged and remains bearish. The Feb 3 fresh cycle low confirmed a continuation of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. A resumption of the bear leg would open 0.6045, a Fibonacci projection. Key resistance is at 0.6302, the 50-day EMA, and 0.6331, the Jan 24 high. A clear break of both levels would be bullish.
SWEDEN: Household Consumption Ends 2024 Firmly, But Final Confirmation Needed
Although the household consumption indicator fell 0.3% M/M in December, 3m/3m growth ended 2024 at 1.0% (vs 1.2% in November). This suggests consumption will be a positive contributor to Q4 GDP (Flash 0.2% Q/Q, Riksbank 0.4%). The final Q4 GDP print is due Feb 28. This will be an important release, because the monthly and quarterly flash statistics are often unreliable and revision-prone.
- Private sector production rose 1.0% M/M in December, corresponding to a 3.0% Y/Y (vs 2.5% prior). This was the joint-highest annual reading since October 2022.
- This reflected sequential increases in industry (5.7% M/M, 9.0% Y/Y) and construction (1.4% M/M, 3.4% Y/Y) production, while services production eased a touch (-0.2% M/M, 1.6% Y/Y).
