SWEDEN: NDO Forecast Error Tightens In February

Moody’s affirmed the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) at Aaa; Outlook stable in an ad-hoc ratings announcement after the close on Tuesday.

• Full release here.

• RES 4: 122.85 High Dec 12      
• RES 3: 121.88 76.4% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg   
• RES 2: 120.98 61.8% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg   
• RES 1: 120.45 HIgh Jan 5     
• PRICE: 120.26 @ Close Feb 3 
• SUP 1: 119.38 20-day EMA          
• SUP 2: 118.65/117.16 Low Jan 24 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
• SUP 4: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)    

A corrective phase in BTP futures remains intact.The latest move higher has resulted in a breach of both the 20- and 50- day EMAs. This signals scope for an extension of the bull cycle and sights are on 120.98, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial key support to watch lies at 118.65, the Jan 24 low. Clearance of this price point would highlight a reversal and the end of the correction.

• RES 4: 164.90 High Dec 30 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 164.08 High Jan 24   
• RES 2: 161.90 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 160.70 High Feb 4
• PRICE: 159.21 @ 07:11 GMT Feb 5  
• SUP 1: 157.97 Low Feb 3
• SUP 2: 156.99 Low Dec 4     
• SUP 3: 156.18 Low Dec 3 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 1155.15 Low Sep 16 ‘24   

A bear threat in EURJPY remains present. The cross traded to a fresh short-term cycle low Monday, confirming a resumption of the bear leg that started Dec 30 last year. An important retracement point at 158.24, 76.4% of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle, has been pierced. A clear break of it would signal scope for an extension towards 156.18, the Dec 3 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch, and a pivot level, is 161.90, the 50-day EMA.