STIR: Net Hawkish Reaction To Powell For Near-Term Rates

Prime Minister Luis Montenegro has confirmed that he will move forward with a confidence motion in his gov't. The vote will effectively prove a piece of political theatre rather than a sincere attempt to draw out the opposition after the centre-left Socialist Party (PS) confirmed that it would abstain. The remaining opposition parties hold fewer seats than the minority centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) led by Montenegro. 

• The censure vote, the second in under two weeks, comes amid a scandal involving Montenegro's family-owned firm Spinumviva. In late-Feb Expresso reported that the Solverde Casinos and Hotel group pays Spiunumviva EUR4,500/month for compliance and consumer protection services. Two casino concessions currently held by Solverde have to be renewed by the gov't in 2025. In an effort to downplay the story, Montenegro confirmed in an address on 1 March that Spinumviva was now wholly under the control of his children.
• It remains to be seen whether the minority gov't can weather the storm. Opinion polling shows little change in support for the AD, PS or the right-wing nationalist Chega! since the March 2024 election. As such, Pedro Nuno Santos' PS may seek to draw out the issue to see if it can significantly damage Montenegro's standing rather than ousting the gov't immediately and risking another hung parliament. 

Bloomberg reporting that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will not lift retaliatory tariffs on the US unless President Donald Trump removes a 25% tariff imposed on Canadian imports on Tuesday morning. The report comes after comments from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick raised optimism that a deal could be struck on partial tariff relief during a call between Trump and Trudeau today. 

• Lutnick told Bloomberg Television Trump is mulling temporary relief: "...our expectation is that it'll be categories... It will be 25 percent but it'll be, there will be some categories left out. It could well be autos, could be others as well,"
• A Canadian government official said Trudeau would oppose a 'middle ground' floated by Lutnick that would only offer a partial rollback of American tariffs, continuing a hawkish posture from Ottawa since the tariff announcement.
• Lutnick, and Trump's key trade advisor Peter Navarro, have both stressed that the measures against Canada and Mexico are fentanyl measures rather than trade measures, leading to optimism that action on the border will lead to another reprieve from tariffs. However, the bar set by Lutnick appears difficult to achieve in the short-term: “We need to see material reduction in autopsy deaths from opioids…"
• WSJ notes: "Trump hasn't, so far, indicated he plans to roll back either the taxes on Canadian and Mexican imports, or the extra 10% tax on Chinese goods," adding he, "would move forward with his plan on reciprocal tariffs, adjusting U.S. levies to match those of other countries."

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 03/05 $Benchmark Mars 2Y +75a, 3Y +85a, 5Y +100a, 7Y +110a, 10Y +120a, 20Y +135a, 30Y +145a, 40Y +155a
• 03/05 $1.5B Axon 5NC2, 8NC3
• 03/05 $1B *KommuneKredit WNG 5Y SOFR+44
• 03/05 $750M #Republic of Armenia 10Y 7.1%
• 03/05 $500M Acadia Health 8NC3
• 03/05 $500M Forestar Group 8NC3