STIR: Net Short Setting Most Prominent In SOFR Futs On Thursday

• We are getting some questions about a potential misquote of Harry Cole (Sun journalist) tweet that "Reeves refuses to rule out tax and cuts at spring budget that’s not a budget".
• Reeves was asked if the economy underperforms if she would rule out tax and spending measures on March 26.
• She answered that the OBR would be releasing forecasts, that there was still 2 months to the forecasts. She says she's been "really clear about the fiscal rules" that they are "non-negotiable" and that she "won't give a running commentary on the March 26 forecasts."
• She doesn't explicitly answer the question - but that's in line with her previous rhetoric.

Italian consumer confidence reversed 3 months of declines in January, ticking up to 98.2 (vs 96.5 cons, 96.3 prior). All sub-components (general economic climate, personal economic climate, current climate and future climate) saw increases relative to December, with the current climate indicator marking its strongest level since August 2023 at 99.8 (vs 98.6 prior). 

• Business confidence also rose to its highest since April 2024 at 95.7 (vs 95.3 prior), driven by construction (104.2 vs 100.9 prior) and manufacturing (86.8 vs 85.8 cons, 85.9 prior).
• Manufacturing confidence remains below its 2000-2019 average (of 91.0) though, with weak demand from major trading partners (e.g. Germany) and US-driven trade policy uncertainty weighing on Italy’s export-driven industrial base. The export order component amongst manufacturers weakened in January to -26.4 (vs -25.5 prior).
• Services confidence dipped slightly to 99.0 (vs 99.6 prior), while retail confidence was 106.5 (vs 106.9 prior).
• Italian flash GDP is due tomorrow, with consensus expecting a soft 0.1% Q/Q reading. The flash release will only provide qualitative details of expenditure/production drivers of GDP, not a quantitative breakdown. 

ERM5 97.875/98.00/98.125/98.25c condor vs 97.5625/97.4375ps, bought the condor for 0.75 in 2k.