US DATA: New Home Sales Pull Back, Still Mitigating Existing Home Weakness
Feb-26 15:29
New home sales fell much more sharply in January than expected, but this was more than made up for by upward revisions.
- The 657k (SA annualized) of new single-family house sales were below the 680k survey - but December was revised a substantial 36k higher to 734k, meaning the actual 2-month total was 14k higher than the "expected" total.
- Sales fell in each of the 4 geographic regions in January, with the exception of the West.
- In terms of inventory, December now turns out to have had a sharp drop in months of supply (8.0, vs 8.5 pre-revision), but this rebounded sharply to 9.0 months in January.
- Median prices rose 3.7% Y/Y, the strongest since January 2024, to the 2nd-highest monthly price ever $446.3k (non-seasonally-adjusted - the record was $460k in October 2022) - the average in January was $510k.
- Bigger-picture, new home sales were down 1.1% Y/Y, so not exactly dynamic.
- But new homes continue to represent an unusually elevated proportion of supply (30%, vs half that pre-pandemic) and total sales (14-15%, vs 10% or lower pre-pandemic) as existing home sales growth stagnates amid high mortgage rates.
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US TSYS: Post-New Home Sales React
Jan-27 15:24
- Treasury futures holding near recent session lows, little reaction to better than expected new home sales for December. Still bid, futures have scaled back overnight risk-off support on weaker stocks tied to China's DeepSeek AI startup.
- Treasury Mar'25 10Y futures currently +16 at 108-31 vs. 109-12 high - just below initial technical resistance of 109-12.5 (50-day EMA).
- Cross asset comparison, stocks are weaker but well off lows (SPX Eminis -103.0 at 6029.50), Gold weaker (-27.33 at 2743.23), US$ index off lows (BBDXY +.21 at 1295.37), volatility index gaining (VIX +3.61 at 18.46).
- Focus remains on Wednesday's FOMC policy annc, as well as heavy corporate earning's docket this week.
JPY: FX Exchange Option
Jan-27 15:22
FX Exchange traded option, looking for further Yen Strength.
- JPYUSD (7th Mar) 67.5c, bought for 0.23 in 1.3k.
The underlying is at 65.175, spot is slightly lower at 0.006481.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H5) Pullback Extends
Jan-27 15:10
- RES 4: 6200.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 2: 6163.75 High Dec 16
- RES 1: 6105.25/6162.28 Intraday high / High Jan 24
- PRICE: 6036.00 @ 14:58 GMT Jan 27
- SUP 1: 5961.75/5948.00 Low Jan 16 / Intraday low
- SUP 2: 5943.94 61.8% retracement of the Jan 13 - 24 bull leg
- SUP 3: 5892.37 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
- SUP 4: 5809.00 Low Jan 13 and a key support
The S&P E-Minis contract initially started the week on a bearish note, extending the pullback from Friday’s high. Key short-term support to watch lies at 5961.75, the Jan 16 low (pierced). For now, the move down appears corrective, however, a clear breach of 5961.75 would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 5943.94, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance is 6178.75, the Dec 6 high.
