EM LATAM CREDIT: New USD Issue: Embraer (EMBRBZ; Baa3/BBB-/BBB-)
Feb-06 13:56
"NEW DEAL: EMBRAER $BENCHMARK 10Y +190 AREA" – BBG
IPTs: T+190bps Area
FV: T+ 170 Area
- Brazilian plane manufacturer, one of the largest worldwide, plans to issue benchmark size 10 year notes. Outstanding 2030 bonds are quoted T+156bps having traded in a recent range of T+140 – 180. The new issue looks interesting given the positive spread to comparably rated bonds as well the positive news recently and projected balance sheet to have almost no net debt given strong free cash flow generation and large cash position.
- Embraer 2030s have tracked Brazil paper company Suzano 2030s within a range of 0 to 20 bps all year long which makes sense as another large-scale Brazil based company with substantial non-Brazil revenues in a cyclical industry. The differential was last at pick 11 bps vs Suzano but given the latest good news we would expect Embraer can price on top of the Suzano interpolated curve.
- Embraer stock was up 16% yesterday on news of a firm order from US executive jet provider Flexjet for 182 planes valued at up to USD7bn. Embraer reported a 4Q24 backlog of USD26.3bn, +41% compared to 4Q23 and +16% compared to 3Q24. Regarding the balance sheet, Fitch forecasts “Embraer's consolidated total and net leverage ratios will trend down to 3.6x and 0.3x in 2024, respectively, and 2.9x and 0.1x by YE 2025, respectively.”
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US: Two Key Meetings To Determine Republican Legislative Strategy
Jan-07 13:55
US President-elect Donald Trump will hold two key meetings with Republican lawmakers this week amid uncertainty over strategy to legislate Trump's agenda.
- On Wednesday, Trump will huddle with Senate Republicans in Washington. On the weekend, Trump will host a large, diverse group of House Republicans at his Mar-a-Lago resort. The Mar-a-Lago attendees are expected to include members of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, various committee chairs, and 'blue state' Republicans who are pushing to increase the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction.
- Early statements from the Senate and Trump's transition team indicated a preference for two major filibuster-proof reconciliation bills, with the first to cover immigration and energy and the second to cover tax and spending. However, since the re-election of House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), Trump has appeared to lean toward a single 'mega bill' strategy forwarded by House Republicans.
- A single reconciliation bill is likely the optimum strategy if the GOP is to ensure adequate Congressional time to extend the Trump tax cuts that expire at the end of the year and avoid a confrontation with House conservatives who are likely to resist passing two high-cost reconciliation bills in one year.
MNI: US REDBOOK: JAN STORE SALES +5.8% V YR AGO MO
Jan-07 13:55
- MNI: US REDBOOK: JAN STORE SALES +5.8% V YR AGO MO
- US REDBOOK: STORE SALES +6.8% WK ENDED JAN 04 V YR AGO WK
BONDS: US Tnotes fades from the lows
Jan-07 13:47
- Mostly two way price action in Treasuries for the past 3 hours, latest flows sees buying interest albeit well within the session's range, and the longer part of the curves remain offered across the US, EU and UK.
- TYH5 is bought in 3k, TUA 2k, and USA 1.2k, but 372k lots traded in Tnotes is very low for this time of the day as Desks await the US Data in just over an Hour.
