STIR: Next Fed Cut Seen In July Ahead With Payrolls Eyed
Feb-07 11:16
* Fed Funds implied rates have pushed up to 1bp higher today ahead of a potentially complicated pa...
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FOREX: Single Currency Edging Lower, FOMC Minutes Awaited
Jan-08 11:13
- EURUSD presses to fresh session lows in recent trade ~1.0310 amid the general firmer price action for the greenback Wednesday. The pair has been slowly eroding the rally from earlier in the week, that had been underpinned by higher-than-expected German inflation and hints that US tariffs could be more selective than first thought.
- With the underlying bullish dollar trend prevailing, EURUSD is now ~120 pips off the week’s highs and notably back below the prior breakdown point of 1.0335. Recent gains appear technically corrective and the Jan 2 sharp sell-off reinforces a dominant downtrend. The bear trigger has been defined at 1.0226, the Jan 2 low.
- ING note that the strong US macro story is fighting technical short-term bullish factors for EURUSD but believe the pair may find decent support at 1.0300 for now.
- Fed minutes and US employment represent the key risks for the pair; however, we will also receive German and French IP data along with Eurozone retail sales this week. ECB’s Villeroy will speak later today in Paris at 1815CET.
EU-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: 3/6/12-Month EU-Bills
Jan-08 11:12
| Type | 3-month EU-bill | 6-month EU-bill | 12-month EU-bill |
| Maturity | Apr 4, 2025 | Jul 4, 2025 | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Amount | E1.391bln | E1.4bln | E1.449bln |
| Target | E1.5bln | E1.5bln | E1.5bln |
| Previous | E1.137bln | E1.9bln | |
| Avg yield | 2.639% | 2.541% | 2.378% |
| Previous | 2.798% | 2.632% | |
| Bid-to-cover | 1.91x | 2.16x | 3.09x |
| Previous | 2.68x | 2.09x | |
| Previous date | Dec 04, 2024 | Dec 04, 2024 | Jan 00, 1900 |
USD: SEK and NZD are the worst performers in G10s
Jan-08 11:07
- The Kiwi has taken over the SEK as the worst performing Currency in G10, both are now circa 0.33% down versus the Greenback.
- Main initial support in NZDUSD is still at 0.5588, the early January low, and the lowest printed level since October 2022.
- The SEK is also eyeing the next decent level at 11.1860, the November high for USDSEK and its best level since early November 2023, price action has been helped following the Swedish CPI coming below expectations this Morning.
