STIR: Next Fed Cut Seen In Sept With CPI and Powell Response Eyed

Feb-12 11:26

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* Fed Funds implied rates hold yesterday's push higher (seen prior to Powell's Senate appearance w...

Historical bullets

LOOK AHEAD: Monday Data Calendar: NY Fed Inflation, Budget Balance, Tsy Bills

Jan-13 11:23
  • US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
  • 13-Jan 1100 NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations (2.97%, --)
  • 13-Jan 1130 $84B 13W & $72B 26W Bill auctions
  • 13-Jan 1400 Federal Budget Balance (-$366.8B, -$73.8B)

EU-BOND SYNDICATION: New 3-year / 3.375% Oct-54 tap: Mandate

Jan-13 11:06

"The EU has mandated Barclays, BNP Paribas, J.P. Morgan, LBBW and NatWest Markets as Joint Lead Managers for its upcoming EUR Fixed Rate RegS Bearer dual tranche transaction comprising a new long 3-year benchmark line due 4th July 2028 and an increase of EU 3.375% benchmark due 5th October 2054 (EU000A3K4EY2). No further group. The transaction will be launched tomorrow, subject to market conditions. "

MNI comments

  • The new 3-year maturing 4 July 2028 was one of the three issues highlighted as likely to launch in H1. We pencil in a tranche size of E5-7bln (we have not seen an EU-bond tranche larger than that since March 2022 - but there is a possibility we go a bit higher with the large H1 EU funding plan).
  • The 3.375% Oct-54 tap we pencil in between E4-6bln (possibly partly depending upon the size of the new 3-year).
  • We look for a combined E9-13bln total transaction size.

US: SOFR FIX - 13/01/25

Jan-13 11:05

SOFR - Bloomberg.

  • 1mth 4.30624 0.0037
  • 3mth 4.30198 0.01497
  • 6mth 4.27941 0.03483
  • 12mth 4.24478 0.06645