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EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply

Mar-26 06:51

Belgium has announced a 10-year USD mandate while Germany and Italy are both still due to hold auctions this week. France held a linker syndication yesterday while the EU, the Netherlands and Germany have already held auctions. There is also the potential for Austrian, Italian and EFSF syndications in upcoming weeks. We look for estimated gross issuance for the week of E30.7bln, up from E30.2bln last week.

For the full document including more details on issuance this week and next week click here.

  • Belgium has announced a mandate for today to syndication to launch a 10-year USD benchmark bond maturing on 2 April 2035. IOIs were being taken yesterday at the MS+67bp area.
  • This morning, Italy will hold a BTP Short Term and BTPei auction. On offer will be E2.5-3.0bln of the on-the-run 2.55% Feb-27 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005633794) alongside E1.0-1.5bln of the 1.50% May-29 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005543803).
  • Also this morning, Germany will return to the market to hold a 15-year Bund auction. On offer will be E1.5bln of the 2.60% May-41 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2F009) alongside E500mln of the 2.50% Aug-46 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102341).
  • To conclude the week on Friday, Italy will hold a 5/10-year BTP auction and CCTeu auction. On offer will be E2.5-3.0bln of the on-the-run 5-yerar 2.95% Jul-30 BTP (ISIN: IT0005637399), E2.50-3.25bln of the on-the-run 10-year 3.65% Aug-35 BTP (ISIN: IT0005631590) alongside E1.00-1.25bln of the 1.05% Apr-32 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005594467) and E1.0-1.5bln of the 1.10% Apr-33 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005620460).

EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C March 24, 2025

Mar-26 06:40

Greece and Italy are both still due to sell bills this week, while Germany, France and Austria have already come to the market this week. We expect issuance to be E21.4bln in first round operations, up from E19.4bln last week.

  • Today, Greece will issue E500mln of the new 26-week Sep 26, 2025 GTB.
  • Tomorrow, Italy will come to the market to sell E7bln of the new 6-month Sep 30, 2025 BOT.
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EURGBP TECHS: Clears Support At The 50-Day EMA 

Mar-26 06:35
  • RES 4: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24        
  • RES 3: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
  • RES 2: 0.8428/8450 High Mar 18 / 11 and the bull trigger
  • RES 1: 0.8395 High Mar 24      
  • PRICE: 0.8339 @ 06:34 GMT Mar 26 
  • SUP 1: 0.8351/40 50-day EMA and pivot support / Low Mar 25
  • SUP 2: 0.8321 61.8% retracement of the Mar 3 - 11 bull leg 
  • SUP 3: 0.8391 76.4% retracement of the Mar 3 - 11 bull leg 
  • SUP 4: 0.8241 Low Mar 3 and a key support 

EURGBP is trading lower this week as the cross extends the bear cycle that started Mar 11. The cross has recently breached 0.8369, the Mar 14 low, and has confirmed a clear break of the 50-day EMA, at 0.8351. The average marked a key short-term pivot level and the breach signals scope for a deeper retracement towards 0.8321, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance to watch is 0.8395, the Mar 24 high.