EU AUTOMOTIVE: Nissan (NSANY Baa3[N]/BB+[N]/BBB-[N]): 3Q24 Results
Feb-13 10:23
EBIT expectation was so close to zero that the miss isn’t relevant. Results were always going to be tough; focus is on the turnaround going forward. No real change here.
- Nissan reported revenue 2% ahead of consensus.
- EBIT missed by 40%, might margin at 1% versus 1.5% expected.
- Automotive FCF was -Y58bn, which shouldn’t be surprising, and better QoQ.
- FY24 revenue guidance was cut by 2%; consensus is already slightly below that. EBIT margin guidance is down 20bp to 1%, with 1.1% expected. That leaves EBIT guidance 8% below; again, this was already partly anticipated. It now sees lower volume and higher incentives but better FX.
- Cost saving plans were reiterated, aiming to reduce volume BEP to 2.5mn from 3.1mn units. Global production capacity will be reduced by 20%.
- Merger talks with Honda have officially ended, as was well flagged recently. They will instead pursue the prior agreed collaboration on tech and EVs. It confirmed it will seek new partnerships, with Hon Hai and KKR reportedly interested.
- Webcast replay https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7SAJKrxbEQg.
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US INFLATION: MNI US CPI Preview: Still Too High For Comfort
Jan-14 10:15
Our preview of Wednesday's December CPI release has been published (PDF):
- Consensus sees core CPI inflation decelerating slightly to between 0.2 to 0.3% M/M in December, with MNI’s analyst review pointing to an average estimate of 0.24% so a bias toward a 0.2% rounded figure.
- Likely to be the single most closely watched individual aspect of Wednesday’s CPI report, rental inflation is expected to accelerate to an average figure that firmly rounds to 0.3% M/M in December.
- Supercore inflation is seen pulling back, though, to the upper 0.20s%, from 0.34% in November.
- If housing is our top pick to watch this month then core goods inflation – which is seen pulling back in December - is closely second, amid tariffs speculation.
- Initial estimates point to core PCE inflation at ~0.20% M/M, softer in outright terms but on a relative basis an acceleration from the softer 0.115% in Nov. That outlook will hinge partly on PPI data out Tuesday.
- It is clear that the Fed will hold in January, with the first plausibly “live” meeting not until March. But with pricing having shifted so quickly away from 2025 cuts, it’s a good juncture to assess whether markets have gotten too hawkish.
- Even in-line inflation readings could bolster the FOMC leadership’s confidence that they are on track to get PCE to 2%, and leave the door open to two rate cuts later this year, though this report is not widely expected to provide the requisite evidence.
