JGBS: No Change Decision By BoJ As Expected, Holiday Tomorrow

Oil prices are off their intraday lows to be little changed today. Brent is up 0.1% to $74.81/bbl after a low of $74.19, while WTI is flat at $70.73 following a trough of $70.12. Brent held above support at $74.10 but WTI traded below it at $70.43 but has since recovered. Oil prices have struggled on developments suggesting greater supply. The USD index is down 0.1%. 

• There has been increased talk of negotiations for a truce to bring peace to Ukraine which may ease sanctions on Russia and allow it to export more fossil fuels. Currently, a deal is a long way off though, with concerns that Ukraine is being excluded from talks between the US and Russia.
• There have also been positive developments in Iraq with the president of its Kurdistan region saying that the area should be able to export crude from the end of March after a two year dispute. This could add up to 300kbd to global supplies.
• Later the Fed’s Harker, Bowman and Waller speak, while there isn’t any US data due to the Presidents Day holiday. Euro area December trade data print and the Eurogroup meeting takes place.  

ACGBs (YM -3.0 & XM -3.0) are weaker with US tsy futures (TYH5 at 109-06+, -0-03+ compared to closing levels) ahead of tomorrow’s RBA Policy Decision. Cash US tsys are closed today for the Presidents Day holiday.  

• Tomorrow’s RBA decision takes centre stage, with economists widely anticipating a 25bp rate cut.
• The RBA statement and updated forecasts will be released at 1430 AEDT, with Governor Bullock’s press conference at 1530 AEDT.
• There are also Q4 wages on Wednesday and January jobs data on Thursday.
• The Q4 WPI is forecast to post another 0.8% q/q rise bringing the annual rate down to 3.2% from 3.5% in Q3. January employment is projected at +20k, with the unemployment rate rising 0.1pp to 4.1%.
• Cash ACGBs are 3bps cheaper.
• Swap rates are 3-4bps higher.
• The bills strip is flat to -4, with a steepening bias.
• RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 4bps firmer across 2025 meetings today, with Dec-25 leading.
• A 25bp rate cut in April remains fully priced (117%), while the probability of a cut tomorrow stands at 83%.
• AOFM plans to sell A$800mn of the 2.75% 21 June 2035 bond on Wednesday and A$700mn of the 2.50% 21 May 2030 bond on Friday. 

• Tsys futures are trading slightly lower today, largely just seen as profit taking after a rally on Friday, while there is no cash trading today with the US out for President's Day. Volumes are not surprisingly well below recent averages, while we remain trading within Friday's ranges. TU is -00⅝ at 102-23¾, TY is -03+ at 109-06+
• 10yr Treasury futures have recovered from Wednesday's low, rising back above the 50-day EMA in the process. Recent weakness resulted in a break of 108-20+, the Feb 4 low. The breach highlights a stronger reversal and most likely the end of the corrective cycle between Jan 13 - Feb 7. A continuation lower would open 108-00, the Jan 16 low, and expose 107-06, the Jan 13 low and bear trigger. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 110-00, Feb 7 high.
• Following the few busy sessions for key economic data last week, fed funds futures are still only pricing in a single 25bps cut this year, currently expected at the September meeting, although pricing has firmed throughout the past week with about a 60% chance the cut will come in June.