BRAZIL: No Date Set For Income Tax Bill Submission, December Retail Sales Due
Feb-13 11:39
- Institutional Relations Minister, Alexandre Padilha, said yesterday that there is still no expected date for the government to submit the Income Tax bill. He said that the central debate ahead is income tax reform and that the deadline to approve the income tax exemption is this year. He also reiterated that the government is absolutely committed to the fiscal framework.
- Meanwhile, Vice President Alckmin has said that trade quotas, that limit the amount of steel Brazil exports to the US, could be a potential alternative to US tariffs on steel and aluminium. Alckmin said that he plans to seek discussions with the Trump administration to find the best solution.
- Retail sales are expected to have been unchanged m/m in December, following a 0.4% m/m decline previously (1200GMT/0700ET). In annual terms, sales growth is seen slowing to 3.1% y/y, from 4.7%.
- Dec. Retail Sales YoY, est. 3.1%, prior 4.7%
- Dec. Retail Sales MoM, est. 0%, prior -0.4%
- Dec. Retail Sales Broad YoY, est. 3.0%, prior 2.1%
- Dec. Retail Sales Broad MoM, est. -0.1%, prior -1.8%
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US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H5) Bearish Trend Structure
Jan-14 11:34
- RES 4: 111-20+ High 6 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 110-25 High Dec 12
- RES 2: 109-24+ 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 108-21+/109-06 20-day EMA / High Dec 31
- PRICE: 107-10+ @ 11:22 GMT Jan 14
- SUP 1: 107-06 Low Jan 13
- SUP 2: 107-04 Low Apr 25 ‘24 and a key support
- SUP 3: 107-00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 106-11 2.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
The trend condition in Treasury futures is unchanged and remains bearish. Monday’s bearish start to the week, has once again, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 107-04 next, a Fibonacci projection. Note too that moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance is seen at 108-21+, the 20-day EMA.
CHF: USDCHF Off Session Lows, Danske Comment on Positioning
Jan-14 11:26
USDCHF extended yesterday's late selloff this morning, printing a 0.9129 low following headlines suggesting a more gradual tariff introduction under the new US administration. However, the pair has since pared the majority of its session losses, suggesting that bullish trend indicators remain intact for the pair.
- Cycle highs were reached yesterday at 0.9201, and further upside momentum would place focus on 0.9224/44, the key medium-term targets for the pair. Support moves up to 0.9061, the 20-day EMA.
- Danske see "aggregate USD positioning still in stretched long territory", while CHF positioning moved further towards stretched short as of data up until January 7. While this may indicate potential for a deeper short-term correction, it underlines that market bets continue to look for further upside potential in the pair.
- The local data calendar remains light, placing the focus on US inflation data and Fed speakers this week for USDCHF sentiment.
LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: PPI, Fed Speak, Tsy CMB Auction
Jan-14 11:26
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 14-Jan 0600 NFIB Small Business Optimism reported 105.1 vs. 101.7 prior
- 14-Jan 0830 PPI Final Demand MoM (0.4%, 0.4%), YoY (3.0%, 3.5%)
- 14-Jan 0830 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (0.2%, 0.3%), YoY (3.4%, 3.8%)
- 14-Jan 0830 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM (0.1%, 0.3%), YoY (3.5%, --)
- 14-Jan 1000 KC Fed Schmid (text TBA, Q&A)
- 14-Jan 1130 US Tsy $85B 42D CMB auction
- 14-Jan 1400 Federal Budget Balance (-$366.8B, -$80.0B)
- 14-Jan 1500 NY Fed Williams open remarks (text, no Q&A)
