AMERICAS OIL: NOAA Weather Outlook Net Supportive Through Feb 19

OEH5 118.00/118.75cs, bought for 15.5 in 4.25k.

The 0.1ppt revision lower for yesterday’s German HICP Y/Y print helps Bunds away from session lows, although the stabilsation/uptick had already started before those headlines crossed.

• Futures last +6 at 132.31 vs. session lows of 132.13. Yesterday’s low (132.11) remains untouched.
• Yields 1bp higher to 2bp lower, curve twist flattens.
• Bunds outperform most EGBs, with OATs & BTPS under the most widening pressure (spreads +2bp), despite the rally in equities.
• GGBs still buck the broader tend, tightening by 1bp vs. Bunds, aided by Greece’s fiscal and ratings trajectory, alongside a modest ’25 issuance target from the PDMA.
• U.S. data (JOLTS & ISM services) headlines the calendar from here.
• Pricing of €IG supply and EGB syndications also eyed, in addition to the US$IG issuance pipeline.

Our Europe Pi positioning indicator has just been published - PDF here

• We last updated Europe Pi before the quarterly rolls in late November/early December - at the time, German contracts and OATs were tilting to flat/short, with Gilts and BTP in long territory.
• Positioning as of early January looks slightly more tilted to the short side since then, though keep in mind that the roll period plus holiday trade may distort the signal somewhat.