POWER: Nordic Curve Climbs on TTF, Cooling Temps

The Nordic forward curve is being supported to track gains in TTF and German power, with average temperatures in the region flipping well below the seasonal average towards the end of the month. However, the hydro balance in Norway and Sweden has been revised up, albeit still well below the balance anticipated at the beginning of the month, which could cap gains. 

• Nordic Base Power MAR 25 up 2% at 46 EUR/MWh at 7:20GMT
• France Base Power MAR 25 down 0.3% at 87.15 EUR/MWh
• Germany Base Power MAR 25 up 1.2% at 103.56 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 25 up 0.1% at 81 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas MAR 25 up 1.1% at 52.63 EUR/MWh
• The planned works at the 1.17GW Forsmark 3 have been slightly shortened but will still occur over 5-7 February, according to the latest Remit data and previously reported by MNI. The unit is currently running at 700MW until 5 Feb 18:00 CET.
• The unit will be fully offline on 5 February at 18:00 CET until 7 February 12:00 CET compared to 5 February at 20:00 CET until 7 February 08:00CET.
• Full power is still expected to be reached on 10 February as previously reported.
• The Norwegian hydro balance is expected higher over 6-19 February, with upward revisions seen as high as around 230GWh from previous forecasts. The balance anticipated at +3.95TWh on 19 February compared to +3.71TWh previously estimated.
• It is important to note that the balance is expected at +8.65TWh on 5 February – about 5TWh drop compared to 19 Feb.
• Sweden’s hydro balance is expected at +5.08TWh on 19 Feb compared to +4.08TWh in the previous estimate. However, this is also below the balance anticipated 5 February at around +7.5TWh.
• Rainfall in the Nordics throughout the 6-10 day ECMWF forecasts will see well below-normal precipitation at just slightly above 0mm/d- which could continue to lower flows into the reservoirs.
• Average temperatures in the region will be on a steady decline from 5 February and are seen flipping below the norm on 14 February to reach as low as -7.5C on 19 February.
• Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at 2.31GW on 6 February, or a 44% load factor up from today's 1.90GW forecast, which could place some downward pressure on delivery.
• Nordic nuclear capacity was at 98% capacity on Wednesday morning, unchanged from Tuesday, according to Bloomberg. 11 of the 11 units are still online.