POWER: Nordic Curve to Face Downward Pressure on Revised Tems, Hydro Balance

The Nordic forward curve may face downward pressure – with 2Q25-3Q25 already trading in red — amid an upward revision of average temperatures in the region, coupled with stronger hydro balance in Norway and Sweden. However, gains in TTF and German power could limit losses.

• Nordic Base Power MAR 25 closed down 1.6% at 44.4 EUR/MWh on 5 Feb.
• France Base Power MAR 25 up 1.3% at 91.99 EUR/MWh
• Germany Base Power MAR 25 up 1.7% at 106.95 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 25 up 0.5% at 81.54 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas MAR 25 up 1.3% at 54.12 EUR/MWh
• The Norwegian hydro balance is expected to be slightly higher over 11-20 Feb, with upward revisions seen as high as just around 100GWh from previous forecasts. The balance is anticipated at +3.27TWh on 20 Feb compared to +3.16TWh previously estimated.
• Sweden’s hydro balance is expected at +4.96TWh on 20 Feb compared to +4.73TWh in the previous estimate.
• However, Nordic hydropower reserves increased the rate of their fall for the second consecutive week in week 5 to be at 67.3% capacity, 85.50TWh as higher demand and below normal precipitation dented stocks. Stocks could continue to move downward this week amid the continued delayed start-up of the 1.17GW Forsmark 3, a weakened hydro balance and cooler temps.
• And rainfall in the Nordics over 6-8 Feb has been revised down, with all days throughout the 6-10 day ECMWF forecasts seeing well below-normal precipitation – which could decrease flows into the reservoirs.
• But average temperatures in the region have been mostly revised up and will now remain above the seasonal average until 16 February. Temps will then flip below on 17 February and reach as low as -5C on 18-19 February.
• Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at 0.928GW on 7 February, or an 18% load factor down from today's 2.31GW forecast, which could place upward pressure on delivery.
• Nordic nuclear capacity was at 98% capacity on Wednesday morning, unchanged on the day, according to Bloomberg. 11 of the 11 units are still online.
• However, the 1.17GW Forsmark 3 is still disconnected from the grid until 7 February, latest Remit data show.
• The unit will reach full power on 10 February.