The Nordic forward curve is trading in red to track losses in TTF and declining prices in German power. The upward revision of temperatures in the region is also adding further downward pressure. However, weakened hydro balances in Norway and Sweden could limit losses. March is currently at its lowest since 30 January.
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A bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 remains in play - for now - and recent gains appear corrective. The metal has recently breached support at $29.642, the Nov 28 low. The break lower opens $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance has been defined at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. A break of this level would signal a reversal.
Dovish repricing in EUR STIRs this morning, with the aforementioned French political headlines supporting EGBs. ECB-dated OIS price 94bps of easing through year-end (vs 91bps at yesterday's close). 25bp cuts remain almost fully priced through the January and March meetings, though OIS assigns a flatter policy rate path from Q2 onwards.
Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
Jan-25 | 2.678 | -24.0 |
Mar-25 | 2.430 | -48.8 |
Apr-25 | 2.282 | -63.6 |
Jun-25 | 2.144 | -77.4 |
Jul-25 | 2.096 | -82.2 |
Sep-25 | 2.025 | -89.3 |
Oct-25 | 2.006 | -91.2 |
Dec-25 | 1.979 | -93.9 |
Source: MNI/Bloomberg. |
The trend set-up in USDCAD remains bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective. The latest pause in the uptrend appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. 1.4348, the 20-day EMA, has recently been pierced. A clear break of the average would open 1.4197, the 50-day EMA.