POWER: Nordic March Falls to Lowest Since End of Jan
The Nordic forward curve is trading in red to track losses in TTF and declining prices in German power. The upward revision of temperatures in the region is also adding further downward pressure. However, weakened hydro balances in Norway and Sweden could limit losses. March is currently at its lowest since 30 January.
- Nordic Base Power MAR 25 down 9.6% at 41 EUR/MWh
- France Base Power MAR 25 down 4.3% at 85.75 EUR/MWh
- Germany Base Power MAR 25 down 3.9% at 102.65 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 down 1.7% at 78.89 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas MAR 25 down 5.5% at 52.605 EUR/MWh
- The Norwegian hydro balance is expected lower throughout the 14-day forecasts, with the balance anticipated at +3.05TWh on 26 February compared to +3.16TWh previously estimated. This is more than half the balance on 12 February at +6.71TWh.
- Sweden’s hydro balance is expected at +4.21TWh on 26 February compared to +4.35TWh in the previous estimate.
- Average temperatures in the region have been revised up over 13-18 February by as much as 0.6C and are now expected to flip above the seasonal average of around -2C on 21 February and remain above until at least 27 February.
- And precipitation in the region will begin to pick towards the end of the month, with rainfall higher over 20-27 February compared to 13-19 February – which could increase flows into reservoirs.
- But Nordic hydropower reserves hit their lowest so far this year in week 6 to be at 64.4% capacity, 81.72TWh as rainfall in the region halved on the week and demand remained firm. However, strong nuclear output slowed the rate of decline.
- Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at just 0.743GW, or a 14% load factor on 14 February – down from the 0.889GW forecast for today – which could support delivery.
- Nordic nuclear availability was at 100% capacity on Thursday morning, unchanged on the day, according to Bloomberg. 11 of 11 units are still online.
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SILVER TECHS: Bearish Theme
- RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $33.125 - High Nov 1
- RES 2: $32.338 - High Dec 12 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $30.661 - High Jan 10
- PRICE: $29.631 @ 08:08 GMT Jan 14
- SUP 1: $28.748 - Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
A bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 remains in play - for now - and recent gains appear corrective. The metal has recently breached support at $29.642, the Nov 28 low. The break lower opens $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance has been defined at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. A break of this level would signal a reversal.
STIR: 91bps of ECB Cuts Priced Through '25
Dovish repricing in EUR STIRs this morning, with the aforementioned French political headlines supporting EGBs. ECB-dated OIS price 94bps of easing through year-end (vs 91bps at yesterday's close). 25bp cuts remain almost fully priced through the January and March meetings, though OIS assigns a flatter policy rate path from Q2 onwards.
- Euribor futures are +2.0 to +3.5 ticks through the blues. Building on yesterday afternoon’s recovery from multi-month lows, ERZ6 is now back above the Nov 6 low of 97.685 at typing.
- Today’s regional calendar is light, with only Italian industrial production due on the data front. We will be tracking comments from ECB hawk Holzmann, who was scheduled to speak from 0800GMT/0900CET.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Jan-25 | 2.678 | -24.0 |
| Mar-25 | 2.430 | -48.8 |
| Apr-25 | 2.282 | -63.6 |
| Jun-25 | 2.144 | -77.4 |
| Jul-25 | 2.096 | -82.2 |
| Sep-25 | 2.025 | -89.3 |
| Oct-25 | 2.006 | -91.2 |
| Dec-25 | 1.979 | -93.9 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
USDCAD TECHS: Bull Flag
- RES 4: 1.4677 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4369 @ 08:05 GMT Jan 14
- SUP 1: 1.4348/4280 20-day EMA / Low Jan 6
- SUP 2: 1.4232 Low Dec 17
- SUP 3: 1.4197 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5
The trend set-up in USDCAD remains bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective. The latest pause in the uptrend appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. 1.4348, the 20-day EMA, has recently been pierced. A clear break of the average would open 1.4197, the 50-day EMA.
