CREDIT SUPPLY: Norsk Hydro (NHYNO Baa2/BBB/NR): Guidance
Jan-16 11:41
- Guidance: EU500m WNG 7Y MS+130 Area.
- IPT: EU500m MS+160 Area.
- Books above EU3.6bn.
- We had FV at MS+130a.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
US TSYS: TY Testing Support In Continued Sell-Off After UK Spillover
Dec-17 11:41
- Treasuries have been pushed lower by spillover from notably stronger than expected UK wage growth, although volumes are subdued ahead of US retail sales later today and of course the FOMC decision tomorrow.
- Cash yields are 2.5-3bp higher on the day in what’s broadly a parallel shift higher.
- 10Y yields are at session highs of 4.426% (+3.0bp). We wrote earlier that 4.50% is the next obvious technical level in yields but that it’s also worth noting that the benchmark continues to operate within the medium-term downtrend channel drawn off the '23 high (upper boundary at 4.46% today).
- TYH5 has recently touched a session low of 109-20 (- 07+) albeit on low volumes of 240k.
- The decline sees an extension of the bear cycle, testing support at 109-20 (Nov 20/21 low) having already pierced 109-22 (76.4% of Nov 15 - Dec 6 upleg). A continuation lower would expose 109-02+, the Nov 15 low and key support. For those looking at the 4.50% yield, it equates to 109-05 today.
- Data: Retail sales Nov (0830ET), NY Fed Services Dec (0830ET), IP/Cap Util Nov (0915ET), Business inventories Oct (1000ET), NAHB housing index Dec (1000ET)
- Note/bond issuance: $13bn 20Y re-open - 912810UF3 (1300ET)
- Bill issuance: US Tsy to sell $65B 42-day CMB (1130ET)
US TSY FUTURES: Cover Dominated On Monday
Dec-17 11:34
OI data points to a mix of net long cover (TU, TY & US), net short setting (FV) and net short cover (UXY & WN) on Monday.
- Long cover in US futures provided the most notable DV01-equivalent swing in positioning (~$2mn), with cover of existing positions dominating in curve-wide DV01 equivalent terms.
- Note that both curve-wide and individual contract DV01 equivalent swings were relatively modest in the grander scheme of things.
| 16-Dec-24 | 13-Dec-24 | Daily OI Change | OI DV01 Equivalent Change ($) |
TU | 4,240,121 | 4,246,133 | -6,012 | -233,804 |
FV | 6,072,862 | 6,062,918 | +9,944 | +424,408 |
TY | 4,477,642 | 4,488,374 | -10,732 | -703,035 |
UXY | 2,162,947 | 2,174,559 | -11,612 | -1,037,519 |
US | 1,842,221 | 1,857,586 | -15,365 | -1,973,078 |
WN | 1,765,118 | 1,765,769 | -651 | -127,823 |
|
| Total | -34,428 | -3,650,852 |
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - EURUSD Trend Needle Points South
Dec-17 11:34
- In FX, EURUSD maintains a softer tone and recent short-term gains appear to have been a correction. The 20-day EMA, at 1.0548, remains intact. A close above this average is required to signal scope for a stronger corrective recovery. This would expose 1.0667, the 50-day EMA. For bears, a resumption of the downleg would pave the way for a test of key support at 1.0335, the Nov 22 low and bear trigger. Clearance of this level resumes the downtrend.
- Despite the latest bounce, GBPUSD continues to trade closer to its recent lows. The primary trend direction remains down and recent gains appear corrective. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance to monitor is 1.2811, the Dec 6 high. Support has been cleared at 1.2617, the Dec 2 low. This exposes the bear trigger at 1.2487, the Nov 22 low. A breach of 1.2609, the Dec 13 low, would reinforce a bearish theme.
- USDJPY remains firm and the pair has started this week on a bullish note . Price is trading above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The breach of these averages undermines the recent bearish theme and signals scope for an extension. Sights are on 154.84, 76.4% of the Nov 15 - Dec 3 pullback. A reversal lower would signal the end of the latest bull cycle and refocus attention on the bear trigger at 148.65, the Dec 3 low. Initial support is 152.24, the 20-day EMA.
