GBPUSD TECHS: Northbound
- RES 4: 1.3175 High Oct 4 2024
- RES 3: 1.3119 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3048 High Nov 6 ‘24
- RES 1: 1.3015 High
- PRICE: 1.2962 @ 15:40 GMT Mar 20
- SUP 1: 1.2911 Low Mar 14
- SUP 2: 1.2835 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.2695 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot support
- SUP 4: 1.2556 Low Feb 28
The GBPUSD trend condition is unchanged and the outlook remains bullish with price trading at its latest highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. The pair has recently breached a Fibonacci retracement at 1.2924, 61.8% of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg. The clear break of this price point opens 1.3048, the Nov 6 2024 high. Initial firm support is 1.2695, the 50-day EMA.
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US DATA: Dallas Fed Survey Finds Strong Increases In Loan Demand
- The timely Dallas Fed’s banking conditions survey, collected Feb 4-12, noted that “loan volume continued increasing at a rapid pace in February while loan demand accelerated further.”
- Whilst only a snapshot for one region, it's nevertheless of note with some disagreement on the FOMC as to the level of restrictiveness currently exerted by monetary policy.
- The current period loan demand balance of +30 is up from +11 in the late Dec survey for its highest since May 2022, whilst future loan demand only dipped 3pts to a still elevated +16.
- A net share continue to see tighter credit standards, but with a balance of -10.4 (after -12.5 in late Dec), it poked below the -10.5 in Oct for technically its least since Apr 2022.
- The press release notes that “Loan nonperformance rose across all loan types, while growth in general business activity slowed”. However, we note that the current period NPL ratio at +16 is within recent ranges, which included the Jan 2025 high of +25. What’s more, the balance expecting higher NPLs in the future at +14 was up from two particularly low reports at 4-5 but is stil far lower than the +50 balances seen in 2023.
FED: US TSY 52W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.050%(ALLOT 6.53%)
- US TSY 52W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.050%(ALLOT 6.53%)
- US TSY 52W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 31.76% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 52W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 1.68% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 52W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 66.56% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 52W AUCTION: BID/CVR 3.03
EURUSD TECHS: Bull Theme Remains In Play
- RES 4: 1.0630 High Dec 6
- RES 3: 1.0594 Dec 9 ‘24
- RES 2: 1.0533 High Jan 27 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 1.0514 High Feb 14
- PRICE: 1.0467 @ 16:07 GMT Feb 18
- SUP 1: 1.0402 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.0280/0141 Low Feb 10 / 3 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.0031 2.00 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
A bull cycle in EURUSD remains intact and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Last week’s gains have reinforced current conditions and strengthened a short-term reversal signal on Feb 3 - a hammer. This suggests scope for an extension near-term. The pair has breached the 50-day EMA, at 1.0432, and sights are on 1.0533, the Jan 27 high. Initial firm support lies at 1.0280, the Feb 10 low.
