US NATGAS: Northeast EOD update: midday models go warmer again
Midday forecast erased heating demand for the second consecutive day. “Phantom” losses in daily production as its sometimes referred to, also occurring for the second consecutive day as total production in the region revises higher, mitigating some-but-not-all of the d/d declines reported this morning.
- Northeast demand revised down 30 mmcf to 35.5 bcf/d, down by around 1.62 bcf/d. Demand is 2.12 bcf/d below the 30-day average.
- To the east, compared to the previous GFS 15day forecast, NYC lost 37.35 HDDs, for a total of 186.62 HDDs. This is 32 less than the 10yr normal.
- To the west, compared to the previous GFS 15day forecast, Columbus OH lost 9.7 HDDs, for a total of 159.71 This is 119.3 HDDs less than the 10yr normal.
- Within the region, total End User demand revised up 8 mmcf to 15.88 bcf/d. Comprised of 47% power generation, 38% rescom, and 15% industrial.
- Net outflows from the region revised down 430 mmcf to 15.26 bcf/d.
- Production in the region revised up 160 mmcf to 35.97 bcf/d mainly in the Appalachian shale play, down around 0.32 bcf/d on the day.
- Imports from Canada are flat at 427 mcf/d today. This compares to 431 mcf/d yesterday.
- Feedgas exports to Cove Point LNG are flat at 845 mcf/d
- This puts the daily supply surplus at around 0.97 bcf/d widening by 1.16 bcf/d on the day.
The NE region refers to New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia, and Maryland. All flow and production data is from Bloomberg.
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USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle
- RES 4: 154.80 High Dec 12 ‘24 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 152.97 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 151.47 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 151.30 High Mar 3
- PRICE: 150.21 @ 16:25 GMT Mar 3
- SUP 1: 148.57 Low Feb 25 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 148.01 Low Oct 9 ‘24
- SUP 3: 147.22 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 146.95 61.8% retracement of the Sep 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg
A bearish theme in USDJPY remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. Support at 148.65, the Dec 3 ‘24 low, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would strengthen the bearish condition and pave the way for a move towards 146.95, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is 151.47, the 20-day EMA. A break of it would suggest scope for a stronger correction.
US: "Large Share Of Americans" Support Increased Funding For Govt Services
A new YouGov survey has found that, “large shares of Americans favor increasing funding for dozens of government services; very few support cuts.” The survey asked about “spending in 40 areas, and in none of these areas did a majority of Americans support a reduction in spending.”
- YouGov notes: “More than 70% of Americans think federal funding should be increased, either a lot or a little, for each of a half dozen areas: elderly care, veterans services, cybersecurity, health care services, disaster relief, and mental health care services. Majorities also want more funding directed to homelessness services, food assistance, infrastructure, disability assistance, border security, early childhood education, and K-12 education, along with several others.
- “Foreign aid is the only instance in which a share approaching a majority (49%) supports a reduction in federal funding. Around one-third (35%) want to reduce funding for artificial intelligence.”
- The survey comes after Elon Musk reissued his instruction to federal government workers to justify their work or face dismissal, an email that threated to drive a wedge between Musk’s DOGE and some Cabinet officials who advised workers to disregard the email.
Figure 1: Support for Public Service
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: Over $28.3B Issuance Expected to Price Monday
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 03/03 $10B #Synopsys $1B 2Y +60, $1B 3Y +70, $2B 5Y +85, $1.5B 7Y +95, $2.4B 10Y +100, $2.1B 30Y +125 (Largest since Bank of America issued $10B over 5tranches on January 17).
- 03/03 $2.5B #Sumitomo Mitsui $500M 3Y +60, $500M 5Y +75, $1B 5Y SOFR+99, $500M 10Y +90
- 03/03 $2.1B #Duke Energy $00M 2Y +40, $850M 10Y +90, $750M 30Y +110
- 03/03 $2.05B #AM Honda $650M 3Y +65, $400M 3Y SOFR+82, $500M 5Y +85, $500M 10Y +105
- 03/03 $2B #MPLX $1B 10Y +130, $1B 30Y +160
- 03/03 $1.5B #PayPal $450M 3Y +50, $450M 3Y SOFR+67, $600M 10Y +92
- 03/03 $1.25B #Virginia Electric $625M 10Y +100, $625M 30Y +120
- 03/03 $1.25B #Humana $750M 10Y +138, $00M 30Y +160
- 03/03 $1B #Columbia Pipelines $550M 10Y +125, $450M 30Y +148
- 03/03 $1B #Nucor $500M 5Y +70, $500M 10Y +95
- 03/03 $800M #Synchrony Financial 6NC5 +145
- 03/03 $750M #CME Group 5Y +50
- 03/03 $600M #Tampa Electric 10Y +100
- 03/03 $500M *John Deere Capital 3Y SOFR+50
- 03/03 $1B Alumina PtyLtd 5NC2, 7.5NC3
