US NATGAS: Northeast Ngas Update: demand declines, region is stable d/d
Mar-19 12:49
- Prompt April 25, Transco Z6 currently priced at $3.67 mmcf, and EGT-SP is $3.38 mmcf
- Northeast demand is currently at 36.3 bcf/d, down by around 0.66 bcf/d. Demand is 4.37 bcf/d above the 30-day average.
- To the east, compared to the previous GFS 15day forecast, NYC lost 1.53 HDDs, for a total of 364.16 HDDs. This is 85.13 above the 10yr normal
- To the west, compared to the previous GFS 15day forecast, Columbus OH lost 12.33 HDDs, for a total of 411.15 HDDs. This is 65.55 above the 10yr normal
- Within the region, total End User demand is down 0.39 bcf/d, at 16.29 bcf/d. Comprised of 47% power generation, 39% rescom, and 14% industrial.
- Net outflows from the region are down 0.32 bcf/d to 15.31 bcf/d.
- Production in the region is around 36.08 bcf/d, down around 0.03 bcf/d on the day.
- Production from the Appalachia shale play is 35.49 bcf/d, down around 0.12 bcf/d on the day. This compares to a 30-day average of 35.3 bcf/d.
- Imports from Canada are down to around 519 mcf/d today. This compares to 504 mcf/d yesterday.
- Feedgas exports to Cove Point LNG are currently at 856 mcf/d, down around 25 mcf/d today. This is below the 30-day average of 879 mcf/d.
- This puts the daily supply surplus at around 0.5 bcf/d widening by 0.81 bcf/d on the day.
- The NE region refers to New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia, and Maryland. All flow and production data is from Bloomberg.
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Historical bullets
ESM ISSUANCE: 10-year Feb-35 syndication: Priced
Feb-17 12:38
- Reoffer: 99.063 to yield 2.859%
- Size: E2bln WNG
- Books closed in excess of E8.5bln (ex JLM interest)
- Spread set earlier at MS+42bps (guidance was MS+45 area)
- HR 98% vs 2.50% Feb-35 Bund (ref 100.16 + 37.8bps)
- Maturity: 26 February 2035
- Coupon: 2.75%, Long first
- Settlement: 24 February, 2025 (T+5)
- ISIN: EU000A1Z99W5
- Bookrunners: BofA (DM/B&D), DB, Santander
- Timing: TOE 12:22GMT / 13:22CET. FTT immediately.
From market source
JPY: Fading USD/JPY Adds to Bullish JPY Impetus
Feb-17 12:34
USD/JPY fade picking here slightly into (what would be) the US open - USD/JPY edges to a new pullback low at 151.42, marking a break through 151.65 and the overnight lows. Weakness here looks contained until any test or break through more notable support at 150.93 - the YTD low posted just over a week ago.
- Perhaps unsurprisingly volumes are lighter than average so far Monday with the US holidays, however activity is holding up pretty well: CME JPY futures show activity running ~15% below what you'd expect to see at this point in the session.
- As mentioned above, conviction over shorting EUR/JPY is building among the sell-side, and coincides with the failure of the cross to break technical resistance at the 50-day EMA in recent sessions - and should USD/JPY take out the bear trigger at 150.93, that makes two notable technical indicators pointing to JPY strength.
OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
Feb-17 12:30
- EUR/USD: Feb18 $1.0300(E1.7bln), $1.0440-50(E1.3bln); Feb19 $1.0500(E1.5bln); Feb20 $1.0520-25(E1.5bln)
- USD/JPY: Feb19 Y155.00-20($1.7bln); Feb20 Y154.00($3.0bln)
- NZD/USD: Feb19 $0.5450(N$1.7bln)
- USD/CAD: Feb18 C$1.4295-00($1.5bln)
- USD/CNY: Feb20 Cny7.2000($1.9bln), Cny7.2500($1.4bln), Cny7.3700($1.3bln)
