IRAN: Nuclear Talks Set To Start 12 April As Abbas Heads To Oman
Apr-11 10:14
Ali Shamkhani, an advisor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, posts on X: "The Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi is on his way to Oman with full authority for indirect negotiations with the US. Far from showing off and talking in front of the cameras, Tehran is seeking a real and fair agreement, important and workable proposals are ready; if Washington enters with honesty and the will to reach an agreement, the path to an agreement will be clear and smooth."
- Discussions on a new nuclear deal are set to get underway 12 April, with the first task outlining an initial framework for talks. US President Donald Trump has threatened military action against Iran if an agreement is not reached in two months.
- The format of the talks remains somewhat unclear. The Iranian side has long said it will only engage in indirect talks, with Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi set to act as a go-between. However, Trump announced earlier this week (in front of an uneasy Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu) that direct talks would be taking place. US Middle East envoy Steven Witkoff (presently in Russia for talks with President Vladimir Putin) is set to lead from the US side.
- NYT reports on senior officials pressuring the Iranian leadership towards a softening of its stance, because "The threat of war with the United States and Israel was extremely serious, [...]. If Iran refused talks or if the negotiations failed, [...] military strikes on Iran’s two main nuclear sites, Natanz and Fordow, would be inevitable."
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CAD: SocGen See Value in USD/CAD Downside via Options
Mar-12 10:11
SocGen write that it is "time for USD/CAD puts" - they recommend positioning for a CAD recovery into the spring, and look to take advantage of 3m options that are still attractively discounted compared to front-end vols.
- They write that as trade fears have intensified the volatility skew in the direction of CAD bearishness, CAD calls are now discounted compared to ATM vol for all OTM strikes and, as such, low strikes of intermediate expiries are currently a sweet spot in the USD/CAD vol surface.
- They point to expressing this view via buying a 15D USD/CAD 3m 1.39 put strike or buying a USD/CAD 3m 1.37 one-touch option.
GILT AUCTION RESULTS: 4.50% Mar-35
Mar-12 10:08
| 4.50% Mar-35 | Previous | |
| Amount | GBP4.00bln | GBP13.00bln |
| Avg yield | 4.679% | 4.536% |
| Bid-to-cover | 2.92x | |
| Tail | 0.5bp | N/A |
| Avg price | 98.580 | 99.706 |
| Low price | 98.542 | |
| Pre-auction mid | 98.520 | |
| Previous date | 11-Feb-25 |
EURIBOR: EURIBOR FIX - 12/03/25
Mar-12 10:06
EURIBOR FIX - EMMI/Bloomberg:
- 1W 2.41800 -11.4
- 1M 2.39200 -5.4
- 3M 2.52700 -2.6
- 6M 2.37200 -2.1
- 12M 2.43100 -1.8
