FED: NY's Williams: Don't See Need To Cut Anytime Soon
Asked about potential for a Fed cut as soon as May, NY Fed President Williams (permanent FOMC voter, dove) tells Fox Business: "I think monetary policy is well positioned. I don't see any need to change the setting of the Fed funds rate anytime soon."
- The comments from such a prominent dove nudged May cut probability yet lower, from an already subdued 4bp (16% implied prob of a 25bp cut) to 3.4bp, but didn't really move implieds further down the strip.
- This comes the morning after Fed Chair Powell sounded similarly unenthusiastic about a near-term cut - arguably not sounding like somebody who is anticipating cutting rates at all this year, given tariff-related inflation risks.
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US TSY OPTIONS: BLOCK: Large Jun'25 10Y Volatility Buying
- +15,000 TYM5 107.5/113.5 strangles, 35 vs. 110-18.5/0.05% at 0917:53ET
- Additionally, +9,000 TYM5 108/113 strangles, 45 vs. 110-19/0.05% on screen
UK: BOE MNI Instant Answer questions for March 2025 meet
The BOE policy decision is due March 20, with the answers to below questions published at midday:
1. Was the Bank Rate changed, and if so by how much?
2. Number of members voting for cut of 50bp or greater?
3. Number of members voting for 25bp cut?
4. Number of members voting for unchanged rate?
NB: On questions 2-4 we will name the dissenters (and the magnitude of dissent)
5. Did the MPC drop reference to a “gradual approach” to removing “policy restraint being appropriate” from their Statement?
6. In the guidance, alongside a “gradual” approach to removing policy restraint, did the MPC use “careful”?
7. Did the MPC again say Bank Rate is likely to “remain restrictive for sufficiently long”?
8. Did the MPC again say it will “decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting”?
9. Did the MPC leave its guidance paragraph materially unchanged versus the February policy statement?
EQUITIES: US Cash Opening calls
US Cash opening calls, set for a steady open, SPX should be close to Yesterday's mid range, as the Emini also trades at Yesterday's mid pre Cash open.
- Calls: SPX: 5,659.3 (-0.3%); DJIA: 41,799 (-0.1%/-43pts); NDX: 19,708.3 (-0.5%).
