NZD: NZD Holding Above 0.5800, Q4 Current Account Coming Up
Mar-18 21:37
NZD/USD finished flat for Tuesday's session, the pair unable to extend gains beyond the 0.5830 level. We track near 0.5815/20 in early Wednesday dealings. Broader USD sentiment was mixed, USD indices were down modestly as EU related currencies outperformed. The commodity bloc and JPY were laggards though.
- For NZD/USD technicals, little has changed since yesterday. Upside focus is likely to rest at the 200-day EMA (0.5861), while the 100-day is close to 0.5765. Intra-session lows from Tuesday came in at 0.5798.
- EU currencies outperformed as Germany passed a bill to unlock fresh large scale fiscal spending for defence and infrastructure. EUR/USD rose above its bull trigger at 1.0945.
- US equity sentiment faltered, the SPX down a little 1%, while EU markets were higher. NZD/JPY got to 87.37, but sits back at 86.85 in early Wednesday dealings. US yields were down a touch, the 10yr back to 4.28%. The FOMC is in focus later on Wednesday.
- On the data front, the Westpac Q1 consumer confidence index printed earlier, falling to 89.2 from 97.5 prior. We are still above cycle lows from 2023. Coming up shortly we have the Q4 current account.
- Overnight we also had the wholesale milk price auction, which eased to $4052, but is still close to Feb highs.
- The AUD/NZD cross is just up off lows of 1.0930, last near 1.0935/40.
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NZD: NZD/USD Rallies, Breaks Back Above The 50-Day EMA
Feb-16 21:36
- NZD/USD closed 0.85% higher on Friday, breaking back above 0.5700 to finish the week at 0.5725, the highest weekly close since mid December.
- The close back above key resistance of 50-day EMA and 0.5700, the first time trading above the 50pday EMA since early October, signals a change in momentum, the RSI is at its highest levels for the year, while the MACD indictor is printing green bars. Key levels to watch include, resistance is 0.5763 (Dec 18 highs), while 0.5790 (100-Day EMA) become a target. To the downside, a hold above the 50-Day EMA at 0.5700 is important, a break here would open a move to 0.5668 (20-day EMA)
- The RBNZ Shadow Board recommends a 50bps OCR cut this week, citing contained inflation, weak economic activity, and a soft labor market, according to NZIER. Members see the OCR at 2.75%-3.5% in a year, advocating a cautious pace of easing. Some expressed concerns over inflationary risks from US fiscal and trade policies and a weaker NZD, while two members favored faster cuts due to weak domestic conditions.
- RBNZ dated OIS is pricing in a 90% chance of a 50bps cut this week, with another 25bps fully priced for April and a cumulative 115bps of cut through to November 2025
- No large nearby strikes Mon. Upcoming notable strikes: 0.5450 (NZD1.71b Feb. 19), 0.5800 (NZD864.8m Feb. 19), 0.5650 (NZD525m Feb. 19)
- Nothing else on the calendar today, focus will turn to Wednesday when we get PPI input/output and the RBNZ rate decision
AUD: AUDUSD Rallies But Technicals Suggest This Is Corrective
Feb-16 21:28
Aussie outperformed the G10 along with kiwi helped by weaker-than-expected US retail sales weighing on the greenback and hope of a Ukraine peace deal supporting risk sensitive currencies. AUDUSD rose 0.6% on Friday to 0.6352 off the intraday high of 0.6368. It has started today slightly lower at 0.6348. The USD index is down 0.3%.
- AUDUSD broke above initial resistance at 0.6334 opening up 0.6384, December 13 high. Initial support is at 0.6231, 10 February low. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position, suggesting that this recovery is corrective.
- Kiwi outperformed the G10 resulting in AUDNZD falling below 1.11. The pair was down 0.4% to 1.1087 on Friday but is now higher at 1.1096.
- Aussie rose 0.2% against the yen to 96.74 after a high of 96.99. It is currently a bit lower at 96.65. AUDEUR was up 0.3% to 0.6055 and AUDGBP +0.4% to 0.5047 but has started today lower at 0.5043.
- The S&P was flat on Friday, while Euro stoxx fell 0.1%. Oil prices were lower with Brent down 0.5% to $74.64/bbl. Copper fell 2.9% and iron ore is around $105/t.
- There are no data or events in Australia today. The focus of the week is on tomorrow’s RBA decision and Thursday’s labour market data.
ASIA: Coming Up In The Asian Session On Monday
Feb-16 21:09
| 0030GMT | 0830HKT | 1130AEDT | Singapore Jan Non-oil Domestic Exports |
| 0230GMT | 1030HKT | 1330AEDT | Thailand 4Q GDP |
| 0400GMT | 1200HKT | 1500AEDT | Indonesia Jan Trade Balance |
| Philippines Dec Overseas Cash Remittances | |||
| India Jan Trade Balance | |||
| Indonesia Dec External Debt |
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